This entry posted by Twayn, on assignment for Bat-girl.com
Here’s the thing – it is cold in Minnesota right now. And it’s going to get colder before it gets warmer. Brass monkey cold. Cast iron bra cold. Teeth-grinding, nose-burning, butt-clenching cold. And the off-season is so very, very long when it is so very, very cold and bleak outside. You know what would feel good right now? Heat would feel good. Hotness would be very good. And what Twins fan can think of hotness without thinking Johan Santana? Well, not Batgirl. Not my wife. Not the population of Venezuela, where right now, according to my public school education, it is actually summertime, and the living is easy, fish are jumping, and the cotton is high. And it’s hot. Really hot. So damn hot that you want to reach out and grab a bottle of something cold. Something sparkling. Something refreshing. Something like… Malta Regional!
Yes, commercials featuring Johan Santana are hot, even when they are in Spanish. Or maybe especially when they are in Spanish. You know what would be even hotter? A commercial featuring Johan Santana and Justin Morneau. And you won’t have to wait long for it. Here’s an excerpt from the New York Times that elucidates:
At 8:45 a.m. yesterday, Mets shortstop Jose Reyes sat shivering on a sidewalk in Greenwich Village. Next to him was Twins starting pitcher Johan Santana, who was grilling a hamburger. It was about 20 degrees outside, and the wind chill made it seem like the low teens. So what were Reyes and Santana doing there?
Along with five other players — Minnesota’s Justin Morneau, Detroit’s Justin Verlander, Boston’s Jonathan Papelbon, St. Louis’s David Eckstein and the Yankees’ Robinson Canó — they were filming a commercial for new baseball caps under the direction of Spike Lee. The hats, manufactured by New Era, are designed to absorb sweat more efficiently, and they have a new black underside to the bill intended to reduce glare. Over and over, from 7 a.m. till noon, the players filmed the ad with 10-minute breaks from the cold.
“I got an idea about how to stay warm,” said Morneau, the 2006 American League most valuable player, as he shuffled between the street and a dressing room at the back of the store. “I could find all the White Sox hats and light them on fire.”
Mercy sakes, so much hotness all in one place. You know what else is hot? Two Cy Young awards in three years, which should have been three Cy Young awards in three years, but who’s counting besides you and me? And you know who loves Cy Young awards? The Venezuelan National Assembly, that’s who. They think two-time Cy Young winners from Tovar Merida are hot, hot, hot. Take a look.
Okay, the heat index is getting up there now. Oh! Oh! I just thought of something else that’s hot. Major League baseball players with their own websites. Especially big, rugged, Canadian major league baseball players with curly blonde hair and bulging biceps and a fetching smile and a Most Valuable Player award. Check it out. And look at the links page for a horribly glaring omission that we must all work diligently to rectify.
Of course, no post about the Twins and hotness would be complete without the catcher with the hottest sideburns and sweetest swing in baseball. And while Chairman Mauer doesn’t have his own website that Google and I know of, he does have fans that are legion, including this little guy who recently got the bestest birthday present of his young life.
And I just thought of something else that will be hot. In just a couple of months, when the Twins open the 2007 season, all of us once again get to be just as excited as Evan.
Patience is a virtue, they say, but it’s hard to come by when it’s ten below.
Sunday morning’s edition of the Star-Tribune announced that the Twins were interested in locking up their most valuable player to a long-term contract. Was that Justin Morneau, the AL MVP? Joe Mauer, their most valuable commodity in terms of marketing? Maybe their most valuable post-season asset: two-time AL Cy Young winner Johan Santana? Well, kinda, but it was the other guy in the story that caught my attention – Joe Nathan.
Is it a revelation? Is it even news? Because other than the headline (“Santana, Nathan moving to top of Twins' to-do list”) just about everyone involved seems to be pretty careful about whether or not this is a priority. Let’s count the caveats, shall we?
Twins officials confirmed Saturday that, after the club signs its six arbitration-eligible players(1), it will approach Santana and Nathan about contract extensions to ensure they are in Twins uniforms when the new park opens.
"We have a lot of things going as far as the arbitration-eligibles(2), as most clubs do," Twins General Manager Terry Ryan said. "You kind of let the calendar dictate our procedure(3). I'd like to take care of first things first(4), then see where things take us(5).
"If you want to do something(6), you approach the people you are responsible to and see if there's anything to be talked about(7)."
Ryan acknowledged that he had preliminary(8) talks with agents for both players during the winter meetings.
Wow. Eight attempts to dampen the impact of the story inside of 125 words. That’s some solid backpeda…er…clarifying by La Velle E Neal. OK, that was a cheap shot, and not a deserved one, because Neal doesn’t make up the headlines. What’s more, it seems like he’s really trying to not overinflate the news that the Twins have explored locking up some key players for when the new ballpark opens.
The question is whether Nathan counts as one of those key players. The value of a closer has been a popular debate recently, and it doesn’t fall cleanly along the sabremetrician/traditionalist border. There are plenty of sabremetricians that wonder if we don’t underestimate the value a dominant game-ending pitcher can have. There are also plenty of traditionalists who wonder if the obscene salaries being paid to these guys are justifiable.
And make no mistake, the salary that Joe Nathan could demand is obscene. No premier closers signed during this latest offseason, so keep in mind that the numbers I’m about to throw out were negotiated when there was still some sanity in the free agent market.
When Nathan’s contract with the Twins ends in 2008, he’ll be 33 years old, and will have been more durable than Wagner. A $50 million contract isn’t out of the question. Which means the Twins would need to commit roughly 1/8 the of their payroll to their closer, and they would continue to do so through the season that he turns 37 years old.
It’s tempting to close the door right there. Given their payroll constraints, the immediate reaction for many can be summed up as IOFI – It’s One Frickin’ Inning. Even memories of LaTroy Hawkins won’t persuade some that just about any above average reliever can get through an inning fairly successfully, and the fact that it happens to be the ninth doesn’t change much. I suspect it can be demonstrated statistically.
But I KNOW that an incredibly consistent closer can be shown to be valuable statistically, because Nathan did it last year. Turns out there’s a slick little tool for measuring how valuable a player was in a specific year. It doesn’t just tell you how well the player performed, but how well they performed at the times that meant the most.
It’s called Win Probability Added, and it basically measures how much a player helped his team win or lose every game. So, pitching a scoreless sixth inning when his team is down by four runs isn’t nearly as valuable as pitching a scoreless ninth inning when his team is tied, and the game is in doubt.
(For now, we’ll stop there with the explanation. If you want to wade just a bit deeper, there’ll be more in a footnote below this entry. Check it out - I bet you’ll like it. It’s logical and requires nothing more complicated than subtraction. It’s really kinda fun. And yes, I’m talking to you, Mister/Miss Artsy-fartsy.)
Anyway, you can find the Twins players’ 2006 WPA here. It confirms a lot of things that you probably suspected - Morneau’s clutch hits were huge for the team, Santana’s starts carried the pitching staff, and while Mauer hit awfully well, he didn’t impact games like Morneau did. But all three of them were secondary to Nathan, whose clutch performance landed him at the top of the list.
Which doesn’t solve the debate, but it might frame it differently. Nathan has been worth every penny so far, and would be even with a big pay hike. And while the Twins have plenty of other candidates for the closer’s role, don’t kid yourself into thinking that we can rely on his replacement to have the same kind of consistency. Or that a change won’t cost the team any wins.
Here’s how WPA works, pulled straight from Wikipedia:
“The Win Probability for a specific situation in baseball (i.e., men on second and third, two out) is obtained by first finding all the teams that have encountered this situation. Then the winning percentage of these teams in these situations is found..…Win Probability Added, thus, is the difference between the Win Probability when the player came to bat and the Win Probability when the play ended.”
For example, let's say that it’s the bottom of the eighth, the home team has a four run lead with two outs and a runner on second base. Of course, this isn’t the only time that this has happened. In fact, it’s happened 784 times since 1979, and the home team has won 777 of them. So empirically, the home team has a 99.1% chance to win the game.
But hold on. The next batter on the visiting team hits a home run, and cuts the lead to two runs. Leading by two runs in the eighth inning with nobody on base, the home team has won slightly less: 95.2%, or a Win Probability of .952. So that home run swing improved the visiting team’s chance of winning the game by 3.9%, and the batter is awarded a WPA of .039. The pitcher that gave up the home run would likewise be deducted .039 from his WPA.
For more stuff on WPA:
Twins Geek is the editor and part-owner of GameDay, the independent baseball program sold by vendors across the street of the Metrodome. He's occasionally filling in for Bat Girl this offseason while she gets some R&R.
Maybe it’ll be at the autograph booths, or at the radio booth, or maybe just walking around. But with all the past, present and future Twins at this thing, you’re going to run across some guy that you’ve never heard of. Here’s a cheat sheet for those of us who aren’t in the Twins front office or SABR historians.
Rick Anderson – The Twins pitching coach, but he also played in the majors, and was part of a trade package the Mets gave up when they acquired David Cone.
Justin Arneson – 24-year-old outfielder who hit .232 in High A last year. Not great, but not bad for a Fergus Falls native that signed after an open tryout camp.
Scott Baker – Starting pitcher had a 3.37 ERA in his rookie year with the Twins, but a 6.37 ERA last year. Of course, he’s still just 25 years old.
Ricky Barrett – Promising LH reliever who had 49 K in 47.1 IP, without giving up a home run last year. The 25-year-old needs to improve his control (26 BB).
Jason Bartlett – Back when he was a utility player in A ball, Bartlett was acquired for Buck Buchanan. I blasted that trade. I’m an idiot.
Juan Berenguer – “El Gasalino” helped the Twins win World Series in 1987. He almost played against them in 1991 but was traded by the Braves in July.
Bert Blyleven – Retired in 3rd place on all-time strikeout list. He proves that 52.3% of all baseball writers are idiots.
Boof Bonser – His success was no fluke. In 2005 he lead AAA International League in strikeouts. Yes, “Boof” is his legal name – he changed it. From John.
Rod Carew – Hit .334 with the Twins. For his career. Fell eight hits shy of hitting .400 in 1977 when he won the American League MVP.
Alexi Casilla – The 22-year-old is who the Twins received for JC Romero. He went from High A all the way to the majors last year. Look for him in 2008.
John Castino – 1979 Rookie of the Year by a tie, strangely enough. Career was cut short by chronic back pain after six seasons with the Twins.
Randy Choate – LH reliever that was signed during the offseason. He’s played the last few years with the D’Backs, splitting time between AAA and the majors.
Jeff Cirillo – 13-year veteran the Twins signed during the offseason. Will backup first base and designated hitter, and may platoon with Nick Punto some at third.
Ron Coomer – One of the better players during some lean years for the Twins, the third baseman signed with the Cubs after the 2000 season.
Jesse Crain – Struggled early, but finished the year with a 3.52 ERA and a considerably better strikeout rate (61K/76IP). He’ll be better than you think this year.
Michael Cuddyer – The breakout season everyone anticipated in 2002 happened last year. The rightfielder handled the cleanup role better than anyone in years.
Mark Dolenc – A 22-year-old Mankato State alum who the Twins drafted last year in the 15th round. The outfielder struggled in his 1st season in rookie league.
Korey Feiner – 25-year-old catcher and Wisconsin native who played in High A last year. He’s invited to spring training this year despite hitting .219 last year.
Lew Ford – Likely backup outfielder whose statistics have declined since his impressive debut in 2004. He’s recovering from offseason surgery on his knee.
Ron Gardenhire – If the Twins win 70 games this year, Gardy will pass Sam Mele for second place all-time in Wins as manager of the Twins.
Toby Gardenhire – The 23-year-old shortstop hit .198 in Low A ball last year. Gardy’s son.
Matt Garza – This time last year, he was the recently drafted first round pitcher. The 23-year-old raced from A-ball to the majors, but may start 2007 in AAA.
Dan Gladden – Gladden makes me wonder if on-base percentage might be overrated for leadoff hitters. He spent five years with the Twins and contributed to two World Championships, but his career on-base percentage was just .324.
Dave Goltz – A very good starting pitcher on some lean Twins teams. Goltz won 20 games in 1977, and had an ERA of 3.48 in his Twins career.
Matt Guerrier – Pronounced Guh-rare. He’s the Twins long reliever for the last few seasons who was picked up off of waivers from the Pirates.
Ken Harvey – Signed in the offseason to a minor league deal. The 28-year-old right-handed first baseman was the Royals 2004 representative to the all-star team.
Chris Heintz – Rochester’s 32-year-old catcher who occasionally is promoted when Gardy gets worked up about batting Joe Mauer as designated hitter.
Kent Hrbek – People remember Herbie as a slugger, but he only finished in the top five in home runs in one season. A great all-around hitter, not just a slugger.
Torii Hunter – Some complain about what Hunter isn’t, but he consistently provides a .270 BA, 25+ HR, 90 RBI and great defense in center field. Not bad.
Garrett Jones – 25-year-old first baseman who has hit 46 home runs in Rochester over the last two years. With 230 strikeouts.
Tom Kelly – Managed the Twins for 16 years and recorded 1140 wins. Has twice as many more wins than any other Twins manager.
Harmon Killebrew – The slugger by which all other sluggers should be measured. Killer led the league in home runs six times. There’s no other Twins within 200 home runs of him. He was a force of nature. I idolized Oliva, grew up with Carew and loved Kirby. But Killebrew is the best Twin ever.
Jason Kubel – Prior to his knee injury he was going to be the third big bat with Mauer and Justin Morneau. Hopefully his destiny was just delayed, not derailed.
Gene Larkin – For his career, he had 268 walks and only 278 strikeouts. In Game 7, the Twins couldn’t have asked for a better, more disciplined hitter, to be up.
Tim Laudner – Defensive catcher who played for the Twins from 1982-1989. Was named to the all-star team in 1988.
Scott Leius – His rookie year was 1991, where he split time at 3B with Mike Pagliarulo. In 1994, he finished second to Wade Boggs in Gold Glove voting.
Steve Lombardozzi – Played 2B for the Twins in mid-80s. In the 1991 World Series, he led all Twins with a .412 batting average. Ask him about his son.
Joe Mauer – Sorry, I have no idea who this guy is.
Justin Morneau – Him neither.
Matt Moses – 1st round draft pick in 2003. The third baseman had just a 689 OPS in AA last year, but he’s also just 21. His glove work needs help.
Joe Nathan – Already is second all-time in Saves for the Twins, though he needs 131 more to pass Rick Aguilera. The 32-year-old closer is signed through 2008.
Pat Neshek – Three years ago, I would’ve mocked the Twins for inviting this native Minnesotan (and 45th round pick) to Twins Fest. Last year the side-arming reliever struck out 140 in 97 innings between AAA and the majors. Again, I’m an idiot.
Tony Oliva – We’re excited for Mauer, but Tony O won batting titles in both of his first two seasons. So try and step it up Joe, willya?
Greg Olson – Proof that the Twins don’t hold any grudges. Olson was the Braves catcher during the 1991 World Series. He’s also a U of M alum.
Glen Perkins – Speaking of U of M grads, the LH starting pitcher began the season in AA and found himself in the majors in September.
Trevor Plouffe – 2004 #1 pick who started at shortstop but has played 3B recently. He’s struggled both seasons so far, but he just 20 years old.
Sidney Ponson – Top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher whose career was derailed by weight, alcohol and legal problems. He’s just 30 and on a minor league deal.
Nick Punto – Was Punto’s 2006 a breakthrough or a fluke? We’ll find out, but the Twins hedged their bets when they signed Cirillo this offseason.
Frank Quilici – Played infield for the Twins from 1965-1970. Then he managed them from 1972-1975, starting as a 33-year-old. Gawd, I miss old time baseball.
Tom Quinlan – You may recognize the name as being a St. Paul family. Quinlan played 3B for four years in the majors, one with the Twins, where he had 6 AB.
Brian Raabe – New Ulm native and U of M alum who played infield for the Twins from 95-97. He had a total of 29 major league at-bats.
Brad Radke – Retired this year in 3rd place on the Twins career wins list, one behind Bert Blyleven. He and Bert can commiserate about lack of run support.
Mike Redmond – Backup catcher who apparently takes naked batting practice. Try and picture THAT as you’re asking him for his autograph.
Juan Rincon – You can only worry so much about a guy whose ERA was 2.91, but he struggled towards the end of last year, and gave up more hits than innings.
Johan Santana – Can we anoint a guy with only three full years as a starter as the best Twins pitcher ever yet? Maybe not, be I’ll listen to arguments.
David Shinskie – A 22-year-old relief pitcher whose strikeout rate doesn’t scream “prospect”, but he had a 2.13 ERA in Beloit.
Carlos Silva – Last year’s struggles might make you forget just how good he was in 2005. I’ll help: 188.1 IP, 9 BB, 3.44 ERA. Probably worth a gamble.
Errol Simonitsch – 24-year-old southpaw starter who hasn’t mastered AA after one-and-a-half years there. Still, he was added to the 40-man roster.
Kevin Slowey – In many organizations, he’d be a dark horse candidate for the starting rotation. Nearly matched Garza stat for stat in the minors. He’s a good’un.
Roy Smalley – You have to love – and I mean absolutely LOVE – that the shortstop that suffered with the Twins through the late 70s came back in time for 1987.
Denard Span – 1st round pick who showed promise as a Kenny-Lofton-type CF, but stalled at AA last year. 2007 is a very big year for this 22-year-old.
Terry Steinbach – U of M catcher has a ring, was a three time all-star, finished his career with his hometown team, and even got a single vote for MVP in 1996.
Kevin Tapani –You don’t need an insane strikeout rate to have a major league career. Tapani didn’t, and he pitched 13 years and was paid $34 million. Nice job.
Eli Tintor – 22-year-old catcher with a 749 OPS (.285 BA) in High A. Plus, he’s from Hibbing and was born on XMas eve. You can’t help but root for him.
Matt Tolbert – 24-year-old shortstop who had decent numbers at High A and AA-New Britain last year. It’ll be interesting to see what a full year at AA produces.
Jason Tyner – I don’t know which was a bigger surprise last year – that he hit .312 or that he only stole 4 bases. Needs to get on base vs. RH to take the next step.
Joe Vavra – Twins pitching coach last year. He “never played the game”. And yet the Twins still hit better. Whoulda thunk it.
David Winfree – Probably the Twins best hope at third base for the future. Hit well in AA after taking some time off for personal reasons. He’ll be 21 this year and likely facing AA pitching. Good luck kid – we’ll be watching you.
Twins Geek is the editor and part-owner of GameDay, the independent baseball program sold outside of Twins games. The Twins, in the spirit of baseball, have let them into the Metrodome for this weekend. You'll be able to get a free copy of the program from the 2006 playoffs, including a Splinters with the above cheat sheet and an autograph card. Hope to see you there.
As part of the week leading up to TwinsFest, Twins Geek will review the moves the Twins made this offseason.
Math can be a lot of things to a lot of people. Such as “boring”. Or “terrifying”. Or even “neat-o”.
Freshman year in college, I was introduced to a new descriptor, and it soon became evident that it was an ideal that the math professors valued above all others. It started when Professor Steve Galovich presented us each with a paper square. And he asked us to do something very simple, which was to create a square that was exactly half of the area of the first square.
Simple, right? Not so much, because you can’t just fold it twice, because then it’s a square that is 1/4 of the area. And if you put two of those together, you get a rectangle, which isn’t even the right shape. And so people started measuring and cutting and looking up the square root of two and all kinds of other great geeky stuff.
At the end, we all showed our various solutions. And then Steve did something, which made everyone look at it differently, and the whole class immediately saw another solution that was infinitely simpler.*
And Steve stepped back and said “They all work. But this one – this is elegant.” And all us dorks smiled because, dammit, it was elegant.
Now I’m guessing that Terry Ryan has also never been called elegant. And I’m not going to be the first one, or at least not to his face. But the moves the Twins made offensively were simple, cheap, and dammit, they were elegant.
The biggest focus this offseason was on the pitching staff. That’s understandable, given the gaps in the starting rotation, but it ignores a basic fact: even with all the injuries last year, the Twins still had the second best pitching staff in the American League, but their offense ranked eighth.
However, that fact is also a little misleading. The Twins offense changed for the better as the year went on, both because of changes to the left side of the infield, and because Justin Morneau and Rondell White became so much more effective. In fact, after the all-star break, the Twins ranked fifth in the league, and were within spitting distance (technically defined as 12 runs or less) of second place. So the offense wasn’t hopelessly broken.
But like the pitching staff it has some of its own deficiencies. They ranked something like this:
1. A true right-handed cleanup hitter, preferably at DH or LF.
2. Protection at third base if Nick Punto turns back into a pumpkin.
3. Protection if Jason Kubel can’t stay healthy.
4. Some left-handed pop off the bench.
5. Some right-handed pop off the bench.
The Twins settled on White for the first need. They won’t expect him to bat cleanup like they did last year, but it’s worth noting that after he overcame his shoulder problems he batted .321 and slugged over .500 post all-star break. If he can do that for the full year, the Twins filled that need rather nicely.
However, White’s injury history not made it imperative that the Twins sign someone to back up Kubel, and now that person had also had to back up White.
This is where things get elegant, because when they signed Jeff Cirillo, it took care of three of those needs. He plays third base, hits right-handed, and pasted left-handed pitching last year to the tune of a .413 BA and a 945 OPS. In one elegant swoop, the Twins found their right-handed bench bat, insurance for Kubel or White (at the DH spot) and a possible platoon partner for Punto if he struggles.
They made a couple of other moves along the same lines, acquiring insurance policies if injuries attack at spring training. They signed right-handed first baseman Ken Harvey (and more recently Matt LeCroy) to help if either Kubel or White go on the DL. They selected Alejandro Machado in the Rule V draft from the Senators, in case a middle infielder gets hurt or Luis Rodriguez needs to be replaced. That also ensures that Alexi Casilla will get a full year playing in Rochester as a starter.
All of those folks are longshots to make the roster because it is already filled up by the nine starting position players, Cirillo, Rodriguez, Mike Redmond, Lew Ford and Jason Tyner. In fact, the next most likely guy to make the team might not even be on the roster yet. You’ll notice that #4, the left-handed bench hitter, hasn’t been taken care of. The Twins have a history of signing a veteran late in the offseason for that role, whether it be Ruben Sierra or Jose Offerman. Someone like Jeromy Burnitz or Steve Finley could still be added.
But for the most part, the Twins offense was built by believing their second half results, hanging onto their players, and signing a player that provided insurance at a number of positions. It was not an offseason of overhaul or splashy moves. It turned out to be simple. Elegant usually does.
Tomorrow: Twins Fest Cheat Sheet.
Twins Geek is the editor and part-owner of GameDay, the independent baseball program sold outside of Twins games. The Twins, in the spirit of baseball, have let them into the Metrodome for this weekend. So while he invites your comments below, he’d love to debate in person this weekend at the GameDay booth.
*God bless you if you came down here looking for the answer. You're a geek after my own heart. Steve cut the square in half diagonally, and then did it again, the other way. Try it - you'll see how to get your half-sized square.
As part of the week leading up to TwinsFest, Twins Geek will review the moves the Twins made this offseason.
The money flowed like water this offseason. Or maybe fell like rain would be a better analogy, because everyone got caught in this downpour. From Alfonso Soriano ($136 million) to Frank Catalanatto ($13 million). From Boston (over $220 million) to the Royals ($62 million).
Or, almost everyone.
Believe it or not, the contracts that were handed out this year are not a conspiracy against small-payroll teams like the Twins. They came about because clubs had money to spend. The source of that revenue wasn’t any one thing, like a big television deal or revenue sharing check. It was a rising tide that was lifting all boats.
So why did the Twins still find themselves high and dry?
It’s certainly easy to feel that way. After all, their biggest free agent signing was Ramon Ortiz. Meanwhile, they had the fourth highest attendance in team history, are constantly increasing seat prices, have a fairly new contract with Fox Sports Net, and a new ballpark being built in the next three years. (Even if you account for a probable decrease in baseball program sales, it can’t offset all that revenue. Giggle.)
And that doesn’t include Radke’s salary coming off the books. So why the hell can’t we expect a real eight-figure free agent? Isn’t this the time for exactly that?
It may or may not have been the time, but it turns out that just like the rest of major league baseball, the Twins DID increase their payroll, and increased it significantly. The figures won't be finalized until after the arbitration rulings come down (and the Twins have six of them) but it appears that the Twins Opening Day payroll will be around $72 million, an increase of $9M over last year’s $63 million. Their prudent ways in the offseason were offset by some monster raised due to the middle of their lineup as Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer and Joe Mauer combined to earn about $11 million worth of increased all by themselves.
The rising tide came. Unfortunately it only allowed the Twins keep treading water.
Tomorrow: How to kill a whole flock with a stone.
Twins Geek is the editor and part-owner of GameDay, the independent baseball program sold outside of Twins games. The Twins, in the spirit of baseball, have let them into the Metrodome for this weekend. So while he invites your comments below, he’d love to debate in person this weekend at the GameDay booth.
As part of the week leading up to TwinsFest, Twins Geek will review the moves the Twins made this offseason.
She stomped down the hallway, except this was a new kind of stomping. It wasn’t deliberate and defiant. It was faster, more frantic, with a touch of hopelessness.
“Tough day? What’s wrong?”, the clueless father asked.
“Oh NOTHING”, she spat back. “Just-that-the-WHOLE-class-knows-who-I-was-CRUSHING-on.”
Turns out that The Chatty Chatty Princess™ had told her friend Jennie that she was crushing on BJ and Jennie had told Samantha who for SOME reason had told Jack who had teased her while they were standing in line for dismissal and now he was going to tell EVERYONE which means she was going to be TEASED every day for the rest of HER MISERABLE LIFE. Or something like that. I may or may not have blacked out somewhere in the middle of the explanation. Suffice to say that it was a worst case scenario for everyone involved.
And that includes the clueless dad, who suddenly realized that his nine-year-old daughter
1. has some hidden gills that apparently allow her to speak endlessly without drawing oxygen and
2. is fast approaching the age where there are going to need to be some delicate talks.
The hidden gills didn’t worry me too much – that’s a genetic trait that every female on her mom’s side of the family seems to share. But the second realization does, because it means I’m going to need to make a decision about preaching absolutes versus the truth.
It’s easy to say that that your whole life will spin out of control after that first cigarette or beer or thrillingly awkward intimate moment. It’s also reasonably effective, because these are kids, and scaring the hell out of them for a few years might not be a bad idea. After all, they’ll eventually figure out the truth themselves, right?
That truth is that you will not burst into flame at the first taste of a forbidden fruit. Each bite can, in the right circumstances, be somewhat justified and bring some some real joy. The trick is understanding when you’re getting carried away – when control is slipping and things are getting worse, not better.
Which brings us to Carlos Silva. Silva brought some real joy in 2005 when he posted a 3.44 ERA. (Read that ERA again. Yes, he really was that good.) As he struggled last year, the Twins first refused to give up on him, then moved him to the bullpen, then were forced to rely on him, then thought he was fixed, then toyed with the idea of him starting in the playoffs, then watched him crash and burn a couple of more times just before the playoffs.
It started to become unclear whether they kept sending him to the hill out of necessity or out of stubbornness. Partly it was because they just needed arms as starting pitchers became hurt. But partly it was because he had been so good, but now he wasn’t, and they really just wanted him fixed. When the dust settled, he had started 31 games, mostly because he was a habit that was too hard to break. Given that mindset and the holes in their rotation, picking up his $4 million option was a gimme.
They soon filled another gap in their rotation with a guy who knows a thing or two about bad habits. Sidney Ponson’s success is longer and more sustained than Silva’s. Three years ago, when he was just 26 years old, he threw 216 innings with a 3.75 ERA. Then he signed a big contract, with a large portion of it seemingly paid in trans saturated fats. That was followed by some legal issues, some brought about by alcohol.
His deal with the Twins is structured to mitigate the gamble both sides are taking. It’s a minor league deal, so no money is guaranteed. But if he makes the 40-man roster (not the 25-man roster, but the 40 man roster, meaning he could be pitching in Rochester) he gets $1 million. And he had additional incentives that could raise the deal to $3 million if he helps out the big club. That’s a fantastic contract for the Twins, and showed a level-headed approach for a team that wants to insure it’s young pitching without blocking it by filling up the rotation.
Speaking of filling up the rotation, the Twins finished their free agent shopping by signing Ramon Ortiz last week. Ortiz hasn’t had a defining year like Silva or Ponson. His profile is that of a slightly built pitcher who nonetheless eats a lot of innings. He’s also pereceived as having pretty good “stuff” which can appear for stretches, but he makes too many mistakes that end up over the outfield wall.
If all that sounds familiar, it’s because the Twins have spent the last few years working with a similar pitcher named Kyle Lohse. And like Lohse, the Twins weren’t afraid to commit some money to this project, signing Ortiz to a guaranteed $3 million contract.
Given the state of the Twins starting rotation, none of these are bad moves. Silva may well had struggled in part because he spent last spring pitching for Venezuela. Ponson may get himself back on track, both personally and professionally. And Ortiz’s potential may just need a Rick Anderson to turn into results. None of these contracts is going to cripple the Twins by itself.
But combined, it’s starting to feel like the Twins are losing control – letting their fear of young pitching get the best of them. For starters, they will now pay somewhere between $7-$10 million in 2007 to three projects. The Twins minor leagues are already stocked with pitching projects, and they’re a lot cheaper.
More worrisome is their tendency to anoint veterans roles based on their years of service. Remember last year when Tony Batista signed a minor league deal? The Twins didn’t need to count on Batista to play third base. But Terry Ryan passed on trading for a cut-rate Corey Koskie because he felt an obligation to Batista. And the coaching staff told Michael Cuddyer to leave his infield glove at home. By the time Batista waddled into spring training, the die had already been cast.
But at least Batista wasn’t blocking much in the way of talent at the position. Twins fans may have soured on Scott Baker after last year’s performance, but let’s not forget that he’s still just 25 years old, and he rocketed from college to the majors in under two years. Matt Garza isn’t just the Twins top pitching prospect – he’s among the top pitching prospects in baseball. 24-year-old JD Durbin found his form and posted a 2.33(!) ERA in Rochester last year. If he doesn’t find his way onto the roster, the Twins will just plain lose him, because he’s out of options. Finally, Kevin Slowey kept pace with Garza throughout his meteoric rise through the minors. Most organizations would be trying to find room for him in their rotation over the latter half of 2007. All of which makes it sound a lot like an argument for backing an absolute condemnation of the Twins overhaul of their rotation.
It's not that easy. I don't know exactly the right answer, but I know it isn't the absolute one. The Twins had gaps to fill, and to expect young talent to fill every one would have been foolhardy. But with up to $10 million dollars and 60% of the rotation committed to similarly profiled pitchers, their strategy is looking less like measured decisions, and a little too much like a club that is falling into some bad habits.
Tomorrow: How to kill a whole flock with a stone.
Twins Geek is the editor and part-owner of GameDay, the independent baseball program sold outside of Twins games. The Twins, in the spirit of baseball, have let them into the Metrodome for this weekend. So while he invites your comments below, he’d love to debate in person this weekend at the GameDay booth.
As part of the week leading up to TwinsFest, Twins Geek will review the moves the Twins made this offseason.
For years we’ve waited for Carl Pohlad to pull out the checkbook and spend eight-figures to sign a power-laden right-handed bat. This year, he did, and what’s more, he signed him at a bargain rate, with very little guaranteed money. (Would we expect any less from Carl?) What’s that? You missed that signing? Well surely you heard that the Twins picked up the $12 million option on Torii Hunter within days after the Cardinals pummeled the Tigers.
Just how much would Hunter have been worth on the free agent market this year? Juan Pierre is 29 years old, with great speed, no power and declining plate discipline. He received a five-year, $44 million deal. Gary Matthews Jr. is 32, has had exactly one above average season and received a 5-year, $50 million contract. And Jim Edmonds is 36, was also hurt most of last year and received $19 million for the next two years. It’s probably safe to say that the 31-year-old Hunter would have received at least five years with about $55 million guaranteed. Suddenly the $12 million, one-year deal looks like a relative steal.
Feeling a little cheated? I can’t blame you – the perception of Hunter’s value might very well outpace his performance, but perception is what sets the market. He isn’t a cleanup hitter, and he isn’t disciplined. But he’s been a study in consistency for the past six years, and you can count on 25+ home runs, 90 RBI, a .270 BA and a kamikaze attitude playing the Metrodome’s most demanding defensive position. It might be time to recognize that just because Hunter isn’t what we might want him to be doesn’t mean he isn’t exceptional.
And you can take comfort that there is very little evidence that the $10 million they used to sign Hunter ($2 million was guaranteed) blocked the way of any other big signing. None of the big-right-handed bats that were on Twins fans’ wish lists (Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee, Aramis Ramirez or even JD Drew) signed for less than $14 million per year and each was signed for at least two years longer than they’re likely to remain productive. Starting pitchers who signed for Hunter-money were either young and shaky (ala Vicente Padilla and Gil Meche) or aged and um, also shaky (Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux). The money freed up from letting Hunter walk didn’t bring any guarantees.
So what happens this year? Well, you likely won’t hear anything silly during TwinsFest or Spring Training about Hunter wanting to start all 162 games this year. The Twins will go out of their way to make sure that Hunter and his foot stay healthy over 81 games on that padded Metrodome concrete. Hunter might even agree to it given his contract status. And we've already talked about the consistent offensive stats he puts up with his inconsistent at-bats.
That contract status will lead to a whole new year of trade talk if the Twins struggle in 2007, but the teams will likely be different. Last year’s three leading contenders – the Dodgers, Angels and Cardinals – were the three teams that signed Pierre, Matthews and Edmonds.
Trade talk this year will probably start with the Rangers who lost Matthews and signed Kenny Lofton to a one-year deal as a stop gap, exactly what the Dodgers did last year. The Cubs will join the rumor mill as soon as they tire of watching Soriano meander towards a line drive. The over-under on that date is April 23rd.
It’s not a coincidence that the two top candidates are the two teams that recently lost their centerfielders. That’s the thing about centerfielders – there are never enough to go around. When a team finds one, it generally pays to hold onto him. And that might be all the thought necessary for Carl to write out the check that Twins fans have been waiting for. Even if it was to someone we already know.
Tomorrow: Part 2 - Chasing Pitching Mediocrity.
(Again. And Again. And yet again.)
Twins Geek is the editor and part-owner of GameDay, the independent baseball program sold outside of Twins games. The Twins, in the spirit of baseball, have let them into the Metrodome for this weekend. So while he invites your comments below, he’d love to debate in person this weekend at the GameDay booth.
BabyDash isn't so sure what to make of the recent signings. He doesn't know anything about Ramon Ortiz, except that he was good in, like, 1999, which according to Dash is practically World War II. At the same time, being an optimist generally, he is all in favor of giving people a chance. And he trusts Terry Ryan, because he and TR have similar hairlines.
Dash is doing wonderfully--growing by leaps and bounds and accumulating baby fat where he should. Word is he should be out of the hospital in a couple of weeks, well in time to watch his first spring training game.
The Twins have signed Ramon Diogenes Ortiz, another right-hander with a recent history of struggling, to a one-year contract. In the great American spirit of competition, that means spring training will feature an interesting fight for the five spots in the rotation: Johan, Boof (IN! and not going anywhere 4ever, right?); Silva (In and trade bait?); Garza and Baker (Young and hopeful); Ortiz and Ponson (Older, battered and in search of their former prowess).
Maybe you remember Ortiz from this particular game.
Have you looked yet?
You might remember that night at the Metrodome, after the Twins had won the first game of the 2002 AL Championship Series and were smacking the ball all over the Metrodome against Ortiz, who somehow managed to give up only 3 runs in 5 1/3 innings. The Angels won that game 6-3, won the next three to win the pennant and then won the World Series in 7 games.
Now, go back and take another look at that box score and imagine whether the outcome of that game would have been different if the Twins' first reliever that night had started the game instead of Rick (Strikebreaker/Heartbreaker) Reed.
Welcome, RD Ortiz, from DJ Bat-Baby and the rest of us. And your parents get bonus points for your middle name. Looks like you could join us in the blogging kingdom if things don't work out on the mound.
Because the Twins got him a giant teddy bear.
With the Twins Caravans making their way through the frigid prairie countryside, it's appropriate that we read the tales of those who brave the January chill to see their heroes (and those at whom they sometimes curse) as we prepare for the 2007 season.
Some also wonder about the rumor spreading through southern Minnesota that LaurieNY, bearing gear not typically associated with baseball, will be standing sentry at the SPAM Museum in Austin, awaiting her Cuddyer.
In the meantime, here are nuggets on which to chew from Comments section of the previous post. Please add to them below.
Ghost42 from North Dakota writes: "Couldn't go tonight (Fargo) as I had basketball pictures with my daughter(Stinks to be the coach sometimes). However. During an interview on KFGO, a local radio station, Nick Punto was asked about his nickname as one of the Piranhas AND THEN the interviewer (who did say he was a friend of your's) called him 'Little Nicky Punto' Nick then referenced Bat-Girl.com and said you were great! Which we all knew already. :)
Bring Back Reboulet or Chip Hale offers up: "Here is a link to an article in the Fargo Forum about our Nathanest of Joes. It has a cool picture of him and a link to a clip from a local news station about half-way down the article."
And from the Fergus Falls stop, Nancy reports: "Since no one has reported yet on the group in Fergus Falls yesterday for brats and chips for lunch --. There was a huge crowd there to see Messrs. Bremer, Oliva, Nathan, and Punto. Joe looked like he had just gotten out of bed, and Nick just looked adorable. It was all the expected stuff -- video of 2006 season, little chats between Dick and the players, and a few questions from the audience, followed by the prizes. I didn't win anything, of course. During the video, Ozzie got the biggest round of applause when he started talking about the piranhas (I started the applause, by the way, and was joined by cheering -- not bad for a bunch of Norwegians on a really cold day!). Every time they showed a Twins pitcher striking someone out, I was so tempted to shout "Sit down, bitch!", but I thought it would not be appropriate with all the children present (no school, you know). Anyway -- I do believe a fun time was had by all concerned, and if you are anywhere near a stop, you really should try to go. It is a good reminder that the season is almost here. And then I watched the Twins ruin Roger Clemens late season start with the Astros on the game on FSN last night -- also a good thing."
Thanks!
It's getting that close! RD isn't normally an excitable sort, but starting next week, the Twins Caravan will start hitting the roads of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and the Dakotas -- and that's just about the best winter-time baseball fix a Batgirl reader could ask for. Come Monday, and running through Jan. 25th, touring Twins posses will be wandering the Upper Midwest, doing their damnedest to stay out of snowdrifts and chatting up folks in a manner that usually isn't possible come April.
That's where you all come in.
Regardless of what any of us Batgirl surrogates are writing about, you are always welcome to post your Winter Caravan story. Post 'em in the Comments section and tell us what's really going on, OK?
The schedule is posted at www.mntwins.com. If you have a choice of cities, RD recommends going to the one where the guys'll be at the end of the day. That's when the group is on less of a schedule, and you may even find them wandering the streets of your town. Or bowling. Or playing Texas Hold 'Em.
I mean, who wouldn't want to be Pat Neshek's tour guide in Brainerd next Tuesday night? And someone's gonna have to take Cuddyer and Redmond to the SPAM Museum in Austin. It may as well be you, right? And RD and Sweet-n-Sassy have scientific proof that sending a drink to Gardy's table, if he happens to be drinking at a table, can result in your next round being paid for by the manager.
Wear your Batgirl gear.
So here's the news on the Twins' latest left-handed hire, Randy Choate, who pitched in 30 games for Arizona last season and is one of those lefties who shows up to face a batter or two and then makes way for the rest of the bullpen:
Associated Press: Left-handed reliever Randy Choate and the Minnesota Twins agreed to terms Tuesday on a minor-league contract.
Choate spent most of last season with Triple-A Tucson, but he appeared in 30 games and posted a 3.94 ERA and 12 strikeouts in 16 innings for Arizona. He pitched a career-high 50 2-3 innings in 2004 for the Diamondbacks, who acquired him in a trade with Montreal for right-hander John Patterson.
Choate began his career with the New York Yankees, who drafted him in the fifth round in 1997 and eventually traded him to the Expos in 2003 as part of a deal for right-hander Javier Vazquez. Choate has thrown 165 major league innings over parts of seven seasons; his best performance came in 2001 when he went 3-1 with a 3.35 ERA in 48 1-3 innings for the Yankees.
Choate, 31, is one of three left-handers the Twins have signed to minor-league deals who will have a chance to win a bullpen spot in spring training. Mike Venafro and Carmen Cali are the others.
Last year, once rookie Francisco Liriano was promoted to the rotation in May, Dennys Reyes was the only lefty — something general manager Terry Ryan is trying to avoid this season. Reyes went 5-0 with an 0.89 ERA in 50 2-3 innings, earning him a $2 million, two-year contract extension.
"Even though Dennys did such a tremendous job, we could have used another guy," Ryan said. "I think we dodged one there."
In other words, RD advises Batgirl and Jeb that Dash's best chance at major-league employment may be as a left-handed short guy, and that it's never too early to prepare him for that career path. Besides, if he's a lefty, he'll never be asked to be the catcher.
Finally, if you're looking for an unusual way to honor a friend, loved one and/or a favorite player, RD and TwinsGoddess recommend this.
Well, it's been quite a couple of weeks in the BatQuarters. Batgirl was sent into the hospital just after Christmas for some bedrest (Doctor: How long have you been having contractions? Batgirl: How long have I been having what?) and life changed a great many times after that, but Dash was born on Saturday, Dec. 30, to the open arms of all.
Much is a blur, but a few facts are true: Dash is a wee little pea, but very healthy. No one can believe that at 31 weeks he could breathe on his own, but he's a strong little guy. He'll be in the hospital for another month or so. And Dr. Beth Kilburg of Women's Health Consulantants saved his life.
Batgirl has had no actual interaction with the outside world, such that on Saturday when Dr. Kilburg said something about Barry Zito's contract, Batgirl had no idea what she was talking about. And there was something about Sidney Ponson (really? Or is that the percoset talking?) and Dougie M going to the Yankees (Again, really? Are we sure?) but it's all a little confusing.
Thank you to everyone for your kind words, thanks to RD for posting the news, and thanks to Twins Goddess for setting up the super-awesome online baby shower. Batgirl is going to be pretty scarce for awhile, but she'll try to recruit some guests to pop in here and kick the tires. And, of course, there will be baby pictures.
... but THIS? At least the news in the post below is much, much, much better!
Yes, the headline pretty much says it all! Dashiell John Bat-Baby decided last week that his time had come to become the newest member of Team Batgirl. Not wanting to wait until after pitchers and catchers report, young Dash made his entry into the world on December 30th. Weighing in at a Puntonian 3 pounds, 2 ounces, the Tiniest Superhero is doing quite well at an undisclosed location, where his surprisingly early arrival was greeted by the excitement and tears and hugs that only a newborn can bring. RD and Sweet-n-Sassy had the thrill of visiting with Mom, Dad and DJ Snazzy Bat-Baby this afternoon and the earliest observations from our well-trained eyes determined that young Dash will be batting lefthanded, playing second base and hitting leadoff when Luis Castillo decides to retire in 2027.
"We're confident he'll put on a few pounds by then," said General Manager Terry Ryan. "The kid already has more range than Tony Batista."
There are no more words, only excitement in the Batquarters! Please understand if Batgirl's posts are sporadic for the next 18 years, er, few weeks.
In the meantime, TwinsGoddess has put together an online baby shower for the Tiniest Superhero. You can find it here.