Sunday morning’s edition of the Star-Tribune announced that the Twins were interested in locking up their most valuable player to a long-term contract. Was that Justin Morneau, the AL MVP? Joe Mauer, their most valuable commodity in terms of marketing? Maybe their most valuable post-season asset: two-time AL Cy Young winner Johan Santana? Well, kinda, but it was the other guy in the story that caught my attention – Joe Nathan.
Is it a revelation? Is it even news? Because other than the headline (“Santana, Nathan moving to top of Twins' to-do list”) just about everyone involved seems to be pretty careful about whether or not this is a priority. Let’s count the caveats, shall we?
Twins officials confirmed Saturday that, after the club signs its six arbitration-eligible players(1), it will approach Santana and Nathan about contract extensions to ensure they are in Twins uniforms when the new park opens.
"We have a lot of things going as far as the arbitration-eligibles(2), as most clubs do," Twins General Manager Terry Ryan said. "You kind of let the calendar dictate our procedure(3). I'd like to take care of first things first(4), then see where things take us(5).
"If you want to do something(6), you approach the people you are responsible to and see if there's anything to be talked about(7)."
Ryan acknowledged that he had preliminary(8) talks with agents for both players during the winter meetings.
Wow. Eight attempts to dampen the impact of the story inside of 125 words. That’s some solid backpeda…er…clarifying by La Velle E Neal. OK, that was a cheap shot, and not a deserved one, because Neal doesn’t make up the headlines. What’s more, it seems like he’s really trying to not overinflate the news that the Twins have explored locking up some key players for when the new ballpark opens.
The question is whether Nathan counts as one of those key players. The value of a closer has been a popular debate recently, and it doesn’t fall cleanly along the sabremetrician/traditionalist border. There are plenty of sabremetricians that wonder if we don’t underestimate the value a dominant game-ending pitcher can have. There are also plenty of traditionalists who wonder if the obscene salaries being paid to these guys are justifiable.
And make no mistake, the salary that Joe Nathan could demand is obscene. No premier closers signed during this latest offseason, so keep in mind that the numbers I’m about to throw out were negotiated when there was still some sanity in the free agent market.
When Nathan’s contract with the Twins ends in 2008, he’ll be 33 years old, and will have been more durable than Wagner. A $50 million contract isn’t out of the question. Which means the Twins would need to commit roughly 1/8 the of their payroll to their closer, and they would continue to do so through the season that he turns 37 years old.
It’s tempting to close the door right there. Given their payroll constraints, the immediate reaction for many can be summed up as IOFI – It’s One Frickin’ Inning. Even memories of LaTroy Hawkins won’t persuade some that just about any above average reliever can get through an inning fairly successfully, and the fact that it happens to be the ninth doesn’t change much. I suspect it can be demonstrated statistically.
But I KNOW that an incredibly consistent closer can be shown to be valuable statistically, because Nathan did it last year. Turns out there’s a slick little tool for measuring how valuable a player was in a specific year. It doesn’t just tell you how well the player performed, but how well they performed at the times that meant the most.
It’s called Win Probability Added, and it basically measures how much a player helped his team win or lose every game. So, pitching a scoreless sixth inning when his team is down by four runs isn’t nearly as valuable as pitching a scoreless ninth inning when his team is tied, and the game is in doubt.
(For now, we’ll stop there with the explanation. If you want to wade just a bit deeper, there’ll be more in a footnote below this entry. Check it out - I bet you’ll like it. It’s logical and requires nothing more complicated than subtraction. It’s really kinda fun. And yes, I’m talking to you, Mister/Miss Artsy-fartsy.)
Anyway, you can find the Twins players’ 2006 WPA here. It confirms a lot of things that you probably suspected - Morneau’s clutch hits were huge for the team, Santana’s starts carried the pitching staff, and while Mauer hit awfully well, he didn’t impact games like Morneau did. But all three of them were secondary to Nathan, whose clutch performance landed him at the top of the list.
Which doesn’t solve the debate, but it might frame it differently. Nathan has been worth every penny so far, and would be even with a big pay hike. And while the Twins have plenty of other candidates for the closer’s role, don’t kid yourself into thinking that we can rely on his replacement to have the same kind of consistency. Or that a change won’t cost the team any wins.
Here’s how WPA works, pulled straight from Wikipedia:
“The Win Probability for a specific situation in baseball (i.e., men on second and third, two out) is obtained by first finding all the teams that have encountered this situation. Then the winning percentage of these teams in these situations is found..…Win Probability Added, thus, is the difference between the Win Probability when the player came to bat and the Win Probability when the play ended.”
For example, let's say that it’s the bottom of the eighth, the home team has a four run lead with two outs and a runner on second base. Of course, this isn’t the only time that this has happened. In fact, it’s happened 784 times since 1979, and the home team has won 777 of them. So empirically, the home team has a 99.1% chance to win the game.
But hold on. The next batter on the visiting team hits a home run, and cuts the lead to two runs. Leading by two runs in the eighth inning with nobody on base, the home team has won slightly less: 95.2%, or a Win Probability of .952. So that home run swing improved the visiting team’s chance of winning the game by 3.9%, and the batter is awarded a WPA of .039. The pitcher that gave up the home run would likewise be deducted .039 from his WPA.
For more stuff on WPA:
Twins Geek is the editor and part-owner of GameDay, the independent baseball program sold by vendors across the street of the Metrodome. He's occasionally filling in for Bat Girl this offseason while she gets some R&R.
Posted by Twins Geek at January 28, 2007 09:37 PMNicky reportedly wasn't eaten:
Nick Punto and Jason Bartlett spent more than three hours late Saturday night filming a commercial for the club featuring the two swimming with other types of fish as a play off the piranhas moniker.
It was a very unusual type of shoot for the two players, as they had to wear wet suits under their uniforms and get into about a 12-foot-deep tank full of other fish and sting rays at the Mall of America. Trying to stay at the right spot in the tank, let alone see anything, was difficult for the two, but it ended up being quite an entertaining experience. And considering that there were no real piranhas in the tank with them, that helped make the shoot a little easier.
"People around the clubhouse, like Torii Hunter, tried to scare me and tell me that the fish are poisonous and we could be in for some trouble," Punto said. "So it was a bit of relief not to see anything like sharks in the tank with us. Really, it was a fun experience and we had a good time with the whole thing."
mlb.com
Posted by: TD at January 28, 2007 11:40 PMMore sass Geek!!! All these numbers.
Do you read Baseball Prospectus glossary entries to the Chatty, Chatty Princess as bedtime stories? I think not. Next you'll be telling us to eat our vegetables!
Seriously. Less stats. More sass. Or I might demand a refund on my subscription price!!!!
(oh, and, umm, good stuff, Geek)
Yeah, I know. Sometimes a geek can't help himself. I promise, I'll give the stats a break for a couple of days off so the site can reattain its proper balance.
Posted by: TwinsGeek at January 29, 2007 07:47 AM
I found some sass!!! Click me.
I think the idea is not only to win now, but to also stay competitive, if that so, i think we should trade him at the deadline, we have Neshek and Crain, maybe even Garza to try as closer, and we could get a bundle for him.
Trade him to either the Red Sox's, or the Cubs, who have closer problems, and we could get either Elisbury or Pie, who would be Hunter replacement in 2 or 3 seasons.
Posted by: Jose Hernandez at January 29, 2007 08:18 AMHi, I hadn't checked in here for a while, and was also thinking that it was a little numbers heavy for a bat-girl post, but that's ok, I used to devour the annual Bill James Baseball Abstract myself.
And I have two words for anyone who doubts the worth of a reliable closer: Ron Davis.
Posted by: popomo at January 29, 2007 08:23 AMI tend to straddle the fence on the debate concerning whether closers are worth the big bucks (much as I straddle the "sass Vs stats" fence, as well). I was in a discussion at TwinsFest about Nathan (probably as we waited in the Nathan autograph line) and his likelihood of being in a Twins uniform beyond his current contract.
I certain agree with the Geek that a reliable closer is worth bigger bucks and that it's not just automatic that one of the set-up guys can step in and fill the role. At the same time, I really don't think the Twins are going to be able to afford to cough up that kind of money AND keep Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, and Santana (not to mention Hunter). If he's signed to a multi-year extension, I have to believe it will be because he was willing to take some kind of discount to stick around as part of this team.
Whether he's traded for value before he's lost for nothing or he's kept for a pennant chase and allowed to leave after the season, I'm betting the Twins will simply hold off-season/spring training try-outs (much like they did when Eddie G. bolted town). It's all about priorities.
_________
Now, on a totally different subject... I was at TwinsFest Sat and Sun and was very impressed with the turnout. That said, what really impressed me was the number of women at this event (and I think they were all patiently waiting in line for Mauer/Morneau/Nathan/Cuddyer autographs, too).
In fact, I overheard a conversation of two women in the Nathan autograph line Saturday that I found interesting. She was telling her friend that she had called her husband to find out what time she needed to be home to take over "staying with the kids" so he could go to poker night with his friends. So... clearly... these were two women who had come to Twinsfest on their own, sans hubbies/kids.
So now the women are going to the ballpark while the men are staying home with the kids? What is this world coming to????
JCrik
Posted by: JimCrikket at January 29, 2007 08:53 AMChecking in again, just a quick note to say I don't mind the occasional stat, especially when it sheds some light on things and totally opens up the door for more sass...
Not to start a debate or anything (I mean, it's the offseason, who wants to talk about baseball? Oh yeah, me...) but clicking over to the Yanks and seeing Jeter's WPA at almost 6 was nice -- like quantifying how valuable I feel he was this past year. Also, it was interesting to verify the world's perception of A-Rod by seeing his 1.11 WPA. Finally, seeing Santana's 4.18 WPA, Liriano's 2.91 WPA and Chien-Ming Wang's 2.42 WPA (best on the Yanks) just shows the state of pitching difference between the two teams.
Thanks for sharing that with me, it really makes a lot of sense, at least with quantifying some of the feelings I have with respect to certain players.
YankeeFan
Posted by: YankeeFan at January 29, 2007 09:51 AMWPA is deceptive.
Without a great bullpen, Nathan would never have found himself in game-winning situations, and thus his WPA would have suffered considerably.
So if you're paying him $50m because his WPA is high, but scrapping the bullpen to do it, his WPA will obviously drop as he isn't in a situation any longer to impact the games.
Hence the whole concept of it being a "team game", and players' statistics (MORE SASS!) are a big product of who is around them - that's why the statistical-types always fail, they look at individual stats as something that transcends surrounding and contributing factors.
Posted by: JohnWayne at January 29, 2007 10:06 AMThe value of the WPA stat rests on the assumption that 'clutchness' exists. There is much dogmatic thinking and little evidence to support the concept of clutch performance. WPA strikes me as the intelligent design of baseball statistics, a quasi-rigorous reinterpretation of evidence based on an unproven (unprovable) premise.
Posted by: bisonaudit at January 29, 2007 10:40 AMI agree that you may not be able to "prove" 'clutchness' exists, but I don't see how anyone who's ever participated in sports (or many other activities, for that matter) where people are occasionally called upon to produce in highly critical situations could possibly doubt it exists.
Every member of every team knows who is clutch and who isn't... they don't need evidence.
JC
Posted by: JimCrikket at January 29, 2007 10:56 AMThus the 'dogmatic thinking' statement.
The related statistic Win Probability may well be useful in analysing game decisions and helpful in understanding turning points in individual contests (and therefore my provide insight into game management) but as a tool to measure individual performance I don't put much stock in WPA.
Posted by: bisonaudit at January 29, 2007 11:42 AMI know this is a discussion on stats, but I wasn't sure if I put this in an older thread if it would get noticed. I thought any single (and, maybe, not so single) ladies would be interested in this little fact I read in a Q & A with Mr. Mauer froom the Pioneer Press:
"Q: Oh, one last thing. You still dating Miss USA?
A: No, that's over. That ended in, I think, November. I'm single. I'm young."
Happy Monday! *wink*
Posted by: Bring Back Reboulet at January 29, 2007 11:54 AMSee... I just KNEW it was a bad idea for my teenage daughter to go to the MoA instead of TwinsFest with her brother and me over the weekend. I tried to tell her how rich he was about to become... but noooooo...
JC
Posted by: JimCrikket at January 29, 2007 11:58 AMWhile I would certainly enjoy seeing Mr. Nathan stay as a Twin beyond 2008, if it takes giving him up to give that money to keep Johan, I am all for it. Johan even realizes the sooner the Twins extend his contract (which they should have done as soon as he won the Cy Young again), the cheaper it will be.
Closers are "easier" to replace (Chris Ray had 33 saves in Baltimore last season after taking BJ Ryan's place) than a #1 starter, so my vote would go to El Presidente over the VP (sorry Joe).
Anyway, just get it done Twins!! I wanna see #57 laying the smack down at the new park.
Posted by: Shaun at January 29, 2007 12:44 PMbisonaudit, I think you are concerned with the stat as a predictive tool, while it is meant to be a measurement of how somebody actually performed. If a player hits a walk off grand slam, it is a clutch play whether or not you believe 'clutch' exists. His next 10 times up he might strikeout in everyone, but for that one instance he was clutch. And in that regard it accurately measures the impact a player had on winning - regardless of any 'evidence' of a 'clutch' player.
A good bullpen may impact the player's situation but won't necessarily help the WPA. For example, the Tigers also had a great bullpen last year but their closer (Jones) only had a WPA of 1.06
Also, Geek, not to nit-pick (ok, to nit-pick), but your example situation needs to be modified. The visiting team can't possibly hit a 2-run homerun in the BOTTOM of the 8th.
Posted by: DiggityDino at January 29, 2007 12:54 PMBatlings, did you see Batgirl's close personal is a finalist for the Minnesota Book Award? This appears in the Children's Lit category:
"The Shadow Thieves," by Anne Ursu Atheneum/Simon &Schuster.
Click my name to see the link on the Trib's website.
We're so proud!
Posted by: Eileen S. at January 29, 2007 01:21 PMSorry, make that BG's close personal friend. I need an editor!
Posted by: Eileen S. at January 29, 2007 01:22 PMYay! Congratulations!
Posted by: Bring Back Reboulet at January 29, 2007 01:29 PMI kinda like WPA, especially when you make a graph of the WPA over the course of a game; it's kind of like a graph of the fans' heart rates. (But like any mathematical of fandom, it ain't perfect: WPA doesn't know who's hitting or pitching, so it doesn't realize how exciting it is to be down by just two with a runner on first, two down ... and the Doctor at the plate!)
(Oh, and YankeeFan, check out A-Rod's WPA for his /other/ years with your Bombers -- his total for all three years is better than Jeter's ... or /anyone else's on the entire team/! The world's perception of A-Rod's "chokiness" is based on two things: salary envy ... and second-hand salary envy.)
Ugh. "Like any mathematical /model/ of fandom." I should also explain that what describes the fan's heartrate is the steepness of the graph: If it's nearly horizontal, not much is changing, and the fans are relaxed. If it's spiking up or down, that's where the excitement hit. Or the terror.
Posted by: cubsalot at January 29, 2007 01:51 PMWhether or not one 'believe's clutchness exists is not relevant. There is no compeling empirical evidence that clutchness 'exists.'
WPA is not predictive, the problem is, when most people use it they are implying that it is predictive, a la, the A-Rod garbage cluttering up this place. YankeeFan did it in his comparision of NYY and MIN pitching and cubsalot did it in his rebuttal of A-rod's performance as a Yankee.
The graphs are cool and provide insight at the game management level. I like to go to fangraphs and check out the game from the night before and see how it correlates with my listening/watching experience and/or read the story in the paper and see if the writer hit the same beats as the analysis. I just don't think it's useful to push this data down onto individual players. If it isn't predictive what do we learn from it? Where's the value in individual WPA?
Posted by: bisonaudit at January 29, 2007 02:24 PMCongratulations to that Ann person, whomever she is! ;)
JC
Posted by: JimCrikket at January 29, 2007 03:08 PMBisonaudit: My argument is that WPA is great (well, pretty good) at quantifying "clutchness." If someone wants to argue that A-Rod isn't clutch, WPA is a quick way to look back and discover that, whether it's repeatable or not, A-Rod /has/ hit in the clutch, a /lot/.
To your specific point, WPA is actually a great tool to find out if "clutchiness" really is repeatable, since it quantifies the thing so nicely. And as I'm well aware, it winds up proving your point: Clutch hitting isn't a skill. Over the long haul (i.e. many seasons, enough time for the luck to more or less even out) clutch hits come most often to guys like Big Papi and Jeter and the Doctor ... and Alex Rodriguez. In other words, guys who, clutch or not, can just plain hit.
BUT, since I've gone way overboard on the stats end of thing, and not enough on the sass, individual WPA and clutch hits definitely /do/ matter, even though they don't predict a ballplayer's future production. They're great for describing what happened, who was the hero of a game or a season. Even if it was just because, on that one occasion, the guy was in the right place at the right time, that's still something worth cheering. The nobody (or the somebody!) who happens to get lucky (or do what he does best) in the right place and at the right time is the one who makes history.
I'm with bisonaudit on this. Sure, WPA is one quantification of clutchiness, but as JohnWayne pointed out, the guys who did their job to *put* the winning runs on base contributed just as much value to the win as the guy who singled them in.
I'm pretty stat geeky too, so I don't mind this entry, though I have to admit it's kind of a shock to see this type of discussion *h*e*r*e*!
Posted by: Slider Away at January 29, 2007 09:39 PMNo offense TwinsGeek - but my head hurts after all this - can I get a little sass =)
Much Love
Wonder Woman
Pretty interesting, but I get dizzy going too deep on the stats. Question, though... How do "streaks" play into WPA?? Players certainly go on tears (and vice versa) which would certainly impact WPA. Morneau is a great example -- on fire during the regular season. During the post-season... not so much. So... "clutch" or not?? What would the WPA say??
Posted by: rotrhed at January 30, 2007 10:03 AMI'm dyin' out here in Seattle! I need some kick-a** stories from the 'Fest! What were some of your experiences?!?!
Posted by: Bring Back Reboulet at January 30, 2007 10:09 AMStories from the 'Fest, hmmm? Well I can't say mine are "kick-a**", but here's a synopsis of my experiences.
My adult son and I arrived Saturday at 11ish for my first TwinsFest. Very impressed with the number of people. Got a real kick out of watching the kids play whiffle ball and home run derby. Also impressed that the Twins provide coaching staff to work with kids in a "clinic" environment.
We made the tour of the card/memorabilia booths but really had no intention of fighting the huge lines for autographs.
Met and spoke briefly with the 'Geek at his GAMEDAY booth.
Ate lunch in left field bleachers... Can't beat Famous Daves BBQ.
Toured the auction items and decided the prices at the memorabilia booths weren't so outlandish after all. Broke down and bought an autographed Morneau bobble head.
Toured the Hall of Fame exhibit. Amazing stuff. Kirby's plaque. Gehrig's jersey. All sorts of displays from the early days of the game near the turn of the century. I love that kinda stuff.
Also bought unsigned bat, ball and bobbleheads of Nathan and Mauer. Sent son to get in line to have my 2006 spring training cap signed by Cuddles while I waited in Nathan line to sign newly purchased bobblehead. Son joined me to get ball signed by Nathan. (So much for not being interested in autographs.) Left for the day, determined to return early enough Sunday to get Mauer autographs on bobblehead and bat.
Arrived at Dome at 9 am. Stood in line in -2 degree temps for one hour, awaiting 10 am opening. Once inside, got in line for 11am Mauer autograph session... and determined that all extremities remained intact despite the cold.
After getting the autographs, went to the Ticket Exchange area to trade 4 Fest passes for 4 upper club game tickets to an April game vs the Orioles.
Left with some new prized (if not really NEEDED) treasures and another great weekend of baseball related memories with my son.
Next stop: Ft Myers in March.
JCrik
Posted by: JimCrikket at January 30, 2007 10:56 AMagain, no offense to Twins Geek but I have to admit that I'm having as much trouble waiting for BG to return to posting a thing or two as I am for baseball season to start.
I need to some sass and baseball.
Posted by: CapitalBabs at January 30, 2007 10:56 AMSee, I really think all the Geek needed to do was come up with a way to incorporate LegoVision in to the discussion about WPA and closers' value.
Posted by: JimCrikket at January 30, 2007 11:19 AMAny stories about being near our beloved Twins are kick-a**!! I'm in desparate need of a Twinkies fix. I'm hoping to get to a game at Safeco this summer.
Posted by: Bring Back Reboulet at January 30, 2007 12:27 PMWell, I was just tweakin' the Geek about the stats. I always enjoy his work. Having BG on the DL is sad, but Geek's Value Over Replacement Blogger (VORB) is quite high. He's like having Vinnie Johnson come off the bench, providing instant offense. Yeah! MicroGeekWave!
that said, LegoVision + WPA would be really cool.
Posted by: brianS at January 30, 2007 01:09 PMJCrik,
I'll be at Myers, too. Tickets for March 12th, 13th, and 15th.
They sold quick that morning they went on sale a couple weekends back, eh?
Posted by: JohnWayne at January 30, 2007 01:52 PMYes, JW, the spring training tickets are going quickly and unfortunately I don't know yet when I'm going to be down there. There's always a way to get a ticket if I'm desperate enough, though.
Worst case scenario, I hang around the practice fields and watch practices which, for me anyway, is the best part of the day at the facility anyway.
Posted by: JimCrikket at January 30, 2007 01:58 PMLegovision + WPA/Closers = Brilliant! (Admittedly, Legovision + [insert any baseball subject] = Brilliant!) Since the owner of all 652 patents to Legovision technology is out on leave, we'll have to use our imaginations, but....
[Legovision Picture: bases loaded for the spacemen, evil knights in the field]
"Top of the 9th at the Cell, with two out, Twins down by three! They have only a 5% chance to win!"
[Legovision shot of the pitch]
"The Chairman swings!"
[Legovision of a knight with sword and shield running toward the wall - but the ball is coming to a Twins fan in the bleachers! (He's got a "Santana/Nathan '08" sign; the guys around him have "Whine/Complain All Day" signs)]
"It's a grand slam! The Twins' chance to win is over 80%! Mauer's WPA goes up by over 3/4 of a game!"
[Legovision of a twitchy astronaut pitching to a knight with an axe, who is swinging so hard he's half spun around backwards.]
"And the Nathan's coming on! That's the ballgame! When he inevitably pitches a scoreless ninth, the Veep's WPA goes up by almost 1/5 of a game!"
I thoroughly enjoyed it, Twins Geek.
Early goes-without-saying request: someone please upload that piranha commercial when it airs.
Posted by: BAT bandwagoner at January 30, 2007 07:06 PMI have to say I love this discussion. I've been thinking about clutchiness virtually non-stop for the last two days. Does clutchiness exist? Can it be quantified or is it just something that you feel deep inside when a certain player approaches the plate? Can it both exist and be unquantifiable at the same time? And what if, in the attempt to quantify it, you have destroyed it or changed it to something else, say, streakiness? Can you predict the future with it, or can you even predict the past? These are very profound questions that lead me back to the conclusion I have so often come to over the years: the game of baseball encompasses all of what is important in the world. There's philosophy (small ball), art (bobbleheads), psychology (Kyle Lohse's head), physiology (we learned more about the shoulder last season than we ever dreamed of knowing), literature (our favorite blog), the animal kingdom (piranhas and batkitties) and now even quantum physics. I ask you, can you say this about football? Don't even waste any time thinking about it.
Now here's a real question: don't you think there is some type of mental toughness unique to a closer? Of course you need mental toughness to be a reliever going into a no outs, bases loaded situation, but it seems to me like it takes something a little different to be a closer. Not every reliever can do it successfully. It seems to me to be worth something a little extra. Maybe not what BJ Ryan is getting, but it's got help a team psychologically to know they've got somebody like Joe Nathan ready to go in the 9th.
Posted by: slew at January 30, 2007 09:14 PMLegoVision for 2007? PLLLLEEEAAAASSSSEEEE! :D
Posted by: pickles at February 3, 2007 12:33 AMOld thread but here's my 2 cents worth. I want BG back too but I also read Geek stuff and enjoy it very much. As for the clutch business, it's BS for the most part. Good players do better than others in "clutch" situations and get a rep as a clutch guy. I've seen the numbers. For instance if a guy hits 300 over all, he will hit 300 in clutch situations. Same with the guy that hits 250. Which one do you think gets the clutch rep?
Same with pitching.
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