As part of the week leading up to TwinsFest, Twins Geek will review the moves the Twins made this offseason.
She stomped down the hallway, except this was a new kind of stomping. It wasn’t deliberate and defiant. It was faster, more frantic, with a touch of hopelessness.
“Tough day? What’s wrong?”, the clueless father asked.
“Oh NOTHING”, she spat back. “Just-that-the-WHOLE-class-knows-who-I-was-CRUSHING-on.”
Turns out that The Chatty Chatty Princess™ had told her friend Jennie that she was crushing on BJ and Jennie had told Samantha who for SOME reason had told Jack who had teased her while they were standing in line for dismissal and now he was going to tell EVERYONE which means she was going to be TEASED every day for the rest of HER MISERABLE LIFE. Or something like that. I may or may not have blacked out somewhere in the middle of the explanation. Suffice to say that it was a worst case scenario for everyone involved.
And that includes the clueless dad, who suddenly realized that his nine-year-old daughter
1. has some hidden gills that apparently allow her to speak endlessly without drawing oxygen and
2. is fast approaching the age where there are going to need to be some delicate talks.
The hidden gills didn’t worry me too much – that’s a genetic trait that every female on her mom’s side of the family seems to share. But the second realization does, because it means I’m going to need to make a decision about preaching absolutes versus the truth.
It’s easy to say that that your whole life will spin out of control after that first cigarette or beer or thrillingly awkward intimate moment. It’s also reasonably effective, because these are kids, and scaring the hell out of them for a few years might not be a bad idea. After all, they’ll eventually figure out the truth themselves, right?
That truth is that you will not burst into flame at the first taste of a forbidden fruit. Each bite can, in the right circumstances, be somewhat justified and bring some some real joy. The trick is understanding when you’re getting carried away – when control is slipping and things are getting worse, not better.
Which brings us to Carlos Silva. Silva brought some real joy in 2005 when he posted a 3.44 ERA. (Read that ERA again. Yes, he really was that good.) As he struggled last year, the Twins first refused to give up on him, then moved him to the bullpen, then were forced to rely on him, then thought he was fixed, then toyed with the idea of him starting in the playoffs, then watched him crash and burn a couple of more times just before the playoffs.
It started to become unclear whether they kept sending him to the hill out of necessity or out of stubbornness. Partly it was because they just needed arms as starting pitchers became hurt. But partly it was because he had been so good, but now he wasn’t, and they really just wanted him fixed. When the dust settled, he had started 31 games, mostly because he was a habit that was too hard to break. Given that mindset and the holes in their rotation, picking up his $4 million option was a gimme.
They soon filled another gap in their rotation with a guy who knows a thing or two about bad habits. Sidney Ponson’s success is longer and more sustained than Silva’s. Three years ago, when he was just 26 years old, he threw 216 innings with a 3.75 ERA. Then he signed a big contract, with a large portion of it seemingly paid in trans saturated fats. That was followed by some legal issues, some brought about by alcohol.
His deal with the Twins is structured to mitigate the gamble both sides are taking. It’s a minor league deal, so no money is guaranteed. But if he makes the 40-man roster (not the 25-man roster, but the 40 man roster, meaning he could be pitching in Rochester) he gets $1 million. And he had additional incentives that could raise the deal to $3 million if he helps out the big club. That’s a fantastic contract for the Twins, and showed a level-headed approach for a team that wants to insure it’s young pitching without blocking it by filling up the rotation.
Speaking of filling up the rotation, the Twins finished their free agent shopping by signing Ramon Ortiz last week. Ortiz hasn’t had a defining year like Silva or Ponson. His profile is that of a slightly built pitcher who nonetheless eats a lot of innings. He’s also pereceived as having pretty good “stuff” which can appear for stretches, but he makes too many mistakes that end up over the outfield wall.
If all that sounds familiar, it’s because the Twins have spent the last few years working with a similar pitcher named Kyle Lohse. And like Lohse, the Twins weren’t afraid to commit some money to this project, signing Ortiz to a guaranteed $3 million contract.
Given the state of the Twins starting rotation, none of these are bad moves. Silva may well had struggled in part because he spent last spring pitching for Venezuela. Ponson may get himself back on track, both personally and professionally. And Ortiz’s potential may just need a Rick Anderson to turn into results. None of these contracts is going to cripple the Twins by itself.
But combined, it’s starting to feel like the Twins are losing control – letting their fear of young pitching get the best of them. For starters, they will now pay somewhere between $7-$10 million in 2007 to three projects. The Twins minor leagues are already stocked with pitching projects, and they’re a lot cheaper.
More worrisome is their tendency to anoint veterans roles based on their years of service. Remember last year when Tony Batista signed a minor league deal? The Twins didn’t need to count on Batista to play third base. But Terry Ryan passed on trading for a cut-rate Corey Koskie because he felt an obligation to Batista. And the coaching staff told Michael Cuddyer to leave his infield glove at home. By the time Batista waddled into spring training, the die had already been cast.
But at least Batista wasn’t blocking much in the way of talent at the position. Twins fans may have soured on Scott Baker after last year’s performance, but let’s not forget that he’s still just 25 years old, and he rocketed from college to the majors in under two years. Matt Garza isn’t just the Twins top pitching prospect – he’s among the top pitching prospects in baseball. 24-year-old JD Durbin found his form and posted a 2.33(!) ERA in Rochester last year. If he doesn’t find his way onto the roster, the Twins will just plain lose him, because he’s out of options. Finally, Kevin Slowey kept pace with Garza throughout his meteoric rise through the minors. Most organizations would be trying to find room for him in their rotation over the latter half of 2007. All of which makes it sound a lot like an argument for backing an absolute condemnation of the Twins overhaul of their rotation.
It's not that easy. I don't know exactly the right answer, but I know it isn't the absolute one. The Twins had gaps to fill, and to expect young talent to fill every one would have been foolhardy. But with up to $10 million dollars and 60% of the rotation committed to similarly profiled pitchers, their strategy is looking less like measured decisions, and a little too much like a club that is falling into some bad habits.
Tomorrow: How to kill a whole flock with a stone.
Twins Geek is the editor and part-owner of GameDay, the independent baseball program sold outside of Twins games. The Twins, in the spirit of baseball, have let them into the Metrodome for this weekend. So while he invites your comments below, he’d love to debate in person this weekend at the GameDay booth.
Posted by Twins Geek at January 22, 2007 11:49 PMJohn - Excellent recap, as always. We've been missing your material on the old twinsgeek.com site this winter! Also I have a nifty little tidbit about GameDay: I was talking to some members of the Twins' Media Relations department a couple weeks ago (the ones responsible for the team's official game day program and magazine) and they said that the overall quality and price of GameDay was one of the main reasons they totally revamped their own publications last year! GameDay is definitely a great option at the ballpark, and it seems even the Twins themselves are sitting up and taking notice.
Which is why is surprises me a little bit that they're letting you into the Dome for TwinsFest... But I'll be sure to stop by and check out your booth if I go!
Posted by: RPM at January 23, 2007 02:25 AMNot trying to be a stickler here, but I'm noticing some inconsistency...
Just yesterday, in the first installment, you remarked how Hunter's option was $12m/1yr, and that 1-year chunk of change would not have made progress in the free-agent market.
Is the situation not *identical* with our pitching signings? Sure, we spent $7-10m on three "projects", but again, it's a 1-year investment, and in the short-term, that money wouldn't have been able to sign any "big names".
If they've got the $7-10m sitting around for next year, I think it's prudent to spend it on short-term "projects", while keeping the money available in the long-term for the Cuddy/Mauer/Morneau contract negotiations.
Posted by: JohnWayne at January 23, 2007 06:29 AMDear Fans of Bat Girl:
Sorry, Twins Geek to get off subject from your excellent analysis, but Bat girl gave us an assignment last week. We were to report on the Twins Caravan. I was in Rochester last night. Terry Ryan, Bert Blyleven, Boof Bonser, and Jason Bartlett. I counted (estimated) over 1000 people in attendance. Lots of enthusiasm by the crowd. Terry made it clear that he wanted to have pitching options, and that he rushed Garza last year. He was forthright, and said that he wanted Ortiz to eat some innings.
Great evening, I love the Twins Caravan.
-Steve from Rochester
Just out of curiosity for anyone who has gone to the Twins Caravan this year or in years past: how are the players' public speaking skills? I know that may sound irrelevant, but I am curious to hear how they do outside of their "element." Are they pretty good or are there a lot of "ums, uhs, and like yeahs"? Are there any players that seem to be more comfortable than others behind the mike? Any insight would be much appreciated!
Posted by: Bring Back Reboulet at January 23, 2007 10:09 AMA little love from the Eastern Seaboard Propaganda Network...
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove06/columns/story?columnist=rogers_phil&id=2738814
Posted by: Carmen at January 23, 2007 10:09 AMThe two new players that I saw were Bonser and Bartlett. Both are charismatic, engaging young men. You could put Jason on the speaking trail right now, he comes across quite well. Boof is still somewhat out of his element, but a guy that can pitch in front of 50,000 people will be able to speak more professionally soon. Don't get me wrong, he's fine, but he's not as comfortable as the others that were there.
Posted by: Swing at January 23, 2007 12:14 PMThank you for the feedback, Swing. I'm glad that even the newbies (the Boofster) don't pee their pants when they get onstage. It's also nice to hear that Bart does well. I'm glad to hear he's back on the Caravan. He came to Fargo last year. I wondered if the California-native would venture back into the frozen tundra.
Posted by: Bring Back Reboulet at January 23, 2007 12:51 PMLove it, Mr. Geek. Thanks. Was that you or Gleeman who said about Silva that "regression to the mean is a bitch" - or was that a borrowed phrase?
Do pitchers have the same arc as position players, who I've been taught peak at 29? Or are they like cornerbacks: you just figure they're going to hurt themselves in 3 years, so use them while they're fresh?
Posted by: nailbiter at January 23, 2007 12:59 PMHey Carmen,
Great find at the propaganda HQ!
:)
Posted by: talldrinkowater at January 23, 2007 02:15 PMI apologize to all for going off topic--but this is crucial for those of us Twins fans from out-of-town. According to SI--MLB Extra Innings is joining March Madness and the NFL Sunday Ticket by going exclusively to Direct TV--see this link
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/john_donovan/01/23/directv.extrainnings/index.html
Sorry--I am not good enough to put it in so that it links. This link was sent to me by my son--an Orioles fan (we live in MD) who now lives in Indianapolis.
Any idea of how those of us who cant get DirectTV can bitch to the @$$%^&* who run MLB. Please get the word out.
Thnx
DAM
When one "eats" innings, is it not necessary for one to retire 3 batters for each inning eaten? If one consistently walks people then gives up homers, isn't one taking too long and surrendering too much for one small meal? Just wondering.
Posted by: al at January 23, 2007 05:17 PMJohnWayne,
I don't think it's so much the $7-$10 million that TwinsGeek is worried about. It's that having Ponson and Ortiz in the rotation may be blocking the development of some of our younger (and yes, cheaper) projects we already have, like Garza, Baker, Durbin, Slowey, Perkins, and so on.
Hopefully Terry and Gardy will be a little quicker to pull the plug on unsuccessful projects this year than they were last. But as was shown with how long Silva, Batista and White all lasted last year (granted White did finally came around about August), something's gonna have to change in management's mindset for the younger guys to get chance.
John Wayne,
You're absolutely right that the $10 million figure is similar. But with Hunter, it was an all or nothing deal. With the the three pitchers, there was room for a more measured move, and they didn't make it. I wouldn't have objected to one or two of the moves. But the third is overkill.
Of course, if they made two of the moves, that would really only have freed up around $3M or so, and in this market, what can you get for that? The answer might be nothing (though I would sure have loved to see them add some LH power on the bench) but even if you don't spend it, at least you're not making a move which blocks some real talent from reaching its potential. Or forcing a real prospect to walk because he doesn't have any options.
But it's a fair point, and one that should probably be more thoroughly examined. The Twins essentially spent about $24M this offseason between renewals and free agents. That was enough to get the right-handed cleanup bat that could lift this offense to another level. It's worth noting.
Posted by: TwinsGeek at January 23, 2007 06:47 PMI don't think it's fair to say this is an indication of TR's ongoing approach. I think this is a case of him doing the best he can with extenuating circumstances (Liriano being out for the year, Radke retiring and a ludicrous pitching market).
Here's what I think:
1) TR really believes Andy can fix Ramon Ortiz, and they'll give him every chance to pitch in the rotation. Sadly, he'll have to really screw up good to lose his spot, and that might cost us precious wins in the long run if Andy's mojo doesn't take hold. Still, if Andy can't turn this guy around, nobody can, so it's worth a shot at 3M.
2) The other guys are exactly what they've been billed as... low-cost, low-risk options that *at minimum* will force those young guys to pitch their way into the rotation in spring training. It builds maturity in them so they have a better chance of handling the pressure that comes in during the regular season. If that's all they do for the team, it's worth it. They also at least give us some options if Silva can't get his stuff together.
I think Perkins & Garza probably are ready to pitch in the rotation already, and believe me, I'd prefer to see that like everyone else. BUT... based on all the question marks, I can see why Gardy & TR want some veteran "backup plans" for THIS year.
Next year guys like Perkins & Garza will have seasoned enough to step in with little/no reservation, and Liriano should be back in the rotation. Based on that, the 2008 opening day rotation could look like this:
Santana, Liriano, Bonser, Garza, Perkins
You can put Bonser in at 2 if you want to alternate L,R,L,R,L
No need to rent risky players with that rotation. Looks pretty sweet to me. =)
- Freez
Posted by: Freez at January 23, 2007 06:50 PMIf the Twins delay Garza's appearance on the big-league roster until after June, they can delay his arbitration-eligibility and free-agency for a full year. That is an important consideration for a team that is probably going to lose key players to free agency in the near future. Plus, Garza isn't quite ready for the bigs. He needs a safer environment to work on his control and such, if only for a couple months. Not only would having Garza begin the year in AAA be a measured decision, bringing him north in April would be an unmeasured one.
I wouldn't be surprised if Baker made the Opening Day rotation. Ponson's deal is a minor-league one, and Baker doesn't have much to prove at AAA.
Posted by: Splorky Fish at January 24, 2007 03:51 AMTwinsGeek,
Thanks for the feedback. I suppose I feel your concern a little better now.
I still fail to see how even $24m would have more progress in the free-agent market, unfortunately.
TR knows he has BIG MONEY due Cuddy, Mauer, Morneau, and (knock on wood we can retain him) Santana. Thus, he'll be needing that $24m two years from now, so it was *practically speaking* only available for this one and only year.
How many free agents signed 1-year deals?
To my way of thinking, that means you either make several moves that can improve the club (as has proven successful), or you go offer Frank Thomas $24m/1yr instead of $20m/2yrs, and appease the fans by bringing in that "big name" everyone always wants to see.
Just my $0.02.
Posted by: JohnWayne at January 24, 2007 08:00 AMjonny14
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