As part of the week leading up to TwinsFest, Twins Geek will review the moves the Twins made this offseason.

For years we’ve waited for Carl Pohlad to pull out the checkbook and spend eight-figures to sign a power-laden right-handed bat. This year, he did, and what’s more, he signed him at a bargain rate, with very little guaranteed money. (Would we expect any less from Carl?) What’s that? You missed that signing? Well surely you heard that the Twins picked up the $12 million option on Torii Hunter within days after the Cardinals pummeled the Tigers.

Just how much would Hunter have been worth on the free agent market this year? Juan Pierre is 29 years old, with great speed, no power and declining plate discipline. He received a five-year, $44 million deal. Gary Matthews Jr. is 32, has had exactly one above average season and received a 5-year, $50 million contract. And Jim Edmonds is 36, was also hurt most of last year and received $19 million for the next two years. It’s probably safe to say that the 31-year-old Hunter would have received at least five years with about $55 million guaranteed. Suddenly the $12 million, one-year deal looks like a relative steal.

Feeling a little cheated? I can’t blame you – the perception of Hunter’s value might very well outpace his performance, but perception is what sets the market. He isn’t a cleanup hitter, and he isn’t disciplined. But he’s been a study in consistency for the past six years, and you can count on 25+ home runs, 90 RBI, a .270 BA and a kamikaze attitude playing the Metrodome’s most demanding defensive position. It might be time to recognize that just because Hunter isn’t what we might want him to be doesn’t mean he isn’t exceptional.

And you can take comfort that there is very little evidence that the $10 million they used to sign Hunter ($2 million was guaranteed) blocked the way of any other big signing. None of the big-right-handed bats that were on Twins fans’ wish lists (Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee, Aramis Ramirez or even JD Drew) signed for less than $14 million per year and each was signed for at least two years longer than they’re likely to remain productive. Starting pitchers who signed for Hunter-money were either young and shaky (ala Vicente Padilla and Gil Meche) or aged and um, also shaky (Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux). The money freed up from letting Hunter walk didn’t bring any guarantees.

So what happens this year? Well, you likely won’t hear anything silly during TwinsFest or Spring Training about Hunter wanting to start all 162 games this year. The Twins will go out of their way to make sure that Hunter and his foot stay healthy over 81 games on that padded Metrodome concrete. Hunter might even agree to it given his contract status. And we've already talked about the consistent offensive stats he puts up with his inconsistent at-bats.

That contract status will lead to a whole new year of trade talk if the Twins struggle in 2007, but the teams will likely be different. Last year’s three leading contenders – the Dodgers, Angels and Cardinals – were the three teams that signed Pierre, Matthews and Edmonds.

Trade talk this year will probably start with the Rangers who lost Matthews and signed Kenny Lofton to a one-year deal as a stop gap, exactly what the Dodgers did last year. The Cubs will join the rumor mill as soon as they tire of watching Soriano meander towards a line drive. The over-under on that date is April 23rd.

It’s not a coincidence that the two top candidates are the two teams that recently lost their centerfielders. That’s the thing about centerfielders – there are never enough to go around. When a team finds one, it generally pays to hold onto him. And that might be all the thought necessary for Carl to write out the check that Twins fans have been waiting for. Even if it was to someone we already know.

Tomorrow: Part 2 - Chasing Pitching Mediocrity.
(Again. And Again. And yet again.)

Twins Geek is the editor and part-owner of GameDay, the independent baseball program sold outside of Twins games. The Twins, in the spirit of baseball, have let them into the Metrodome for this weekend. So while he invites your comments below, he’d love to debate in person this weekend at the GameDay booth.

Posted by Twins Geek at January 21, 2007 11:20 PM