Jason Williams of the discusses The Lohse Factor, arguing, essentially, the rotation might not be solid without him next year but we might not be able to afford the hitter we need if we don't trade him. He's got a point--while Liriano is, of course, Santana 2: Electric Boogaloo, his September call-up was rocky and he may not quite be ready to start in the bigs. Williams advocates keeping Lohse, signing Bill Mueller, and getting Dr. Morneau to reach his potential. The latter is something we can all get behind.
For what its worth, Charley Walters says Frank Thomas isn't coming to the Twins. Batgirl expects him next week.
From the Tacoma News-Tribune, an interesting article about the character factor in free agents. Should the Mariners pursue Raffy "Miggy Did It" Palmeiro and Kenny "Anger Management" Rogers? How much should character factor in building a team? How do you treat players with great numbers who have been cast out of their own clubhouses for gross character problems?
Cleveland upgrades their pitching staff with that guy who looks like Frasier Krane.
And finally, el diablo sends this site, along with his undying love: Bert Belongs. It's an extremely cool Bert for HOF site. Check out how Bert stacks up against other pitching greats!
And, extra-finally, there's a new Twins blog at Twins Boy!
Edit: Oh yes, and AJ Involved in Pro Wrestling Brawl. Damn, I miss him.
Posted by Batgirl at December 4, 2005 05:56 PMI think Liriano is good enough to hold down the 5th spot in the pitching rotation. Santana, Silva, Radke, and Baker are all very solid, so we can take somewhat of a chance there. But if we kept lohse...it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. We could still use either Rincon or Romero to get a bat (or both for the right deal).
Posted by: Josh at December 4, 2005 06:17 PMI would seriously advise against trading Boo.
Posted by: Me at December 4, 2005 06:36 PMI agree with the Lohse Factor, but with all apologies to Batgirl, I will only accept Darth Thomas if he brings the Twinkie to the seiries, and puts "The Hurt" on the Bitch Sox.
Posted by: Twinsboy at December 4, 2005 06:38 PMIt seems to me like Liriano might not be ready for the bigs yet: they moved him up pretty quickly through the ranks... but i think baker is solid. also, what about making shaggy part of the rotation? he pretty much rocked last year (besides that grand slam, which i just try to forget...) I think he could be put in the rotation if something happened to radke and his shoulder. just a thought.
Posted by: Hannah! at December 4, 2005 07:15 PMBaker is definately ready for the bigs. But I think that maybe they should put Gureier in for a month and give Francisco more practice while they see how Matt will do as a reserve SP, but it all depends on how Spring Trainig plays out.
Posted by: Twinsboy at December 4, 2005 07:28 PMWell, all that is really needed/wanted of a 4 or 5 is to go .500. Unfortunately, those rotation positions are much more reliant on a strong offense and a steady, rested bully. Any Lohse trade needs to seriously increase RsBI potential.
Posted by: BAT bandwagoner at December 4, 2005 07:42 PMI also agree with the Lohse factor. Besides, if we're worried about rushing Liriano, which I think we should be, we could always try to move Lohse to make room for him at the all-star break. By then we'll know if this past season was a bump in the road or the beginning of what should be a short rebuilding process.
In an offseason where the twins need to make some moves, I sure am glad TR is our GM. When it comes to Thomas, Piazza, or any other aging slugger, I feel comfortable trusting his judgment. Also, this offseason would have been even more trying if we hadn't signed Radke, Santana, and Silva last offseason. Sure is nice to feel comfotable dealing some young pitchers for a change.
Posted by: Bob at December 4, 2005 07:42 PMThe biggest argument for keeping Lohse is injuries. A rotation of Radke-Santana-Silva-Baker-Liriano is one of the best in MLB, but if one of those guys goes down, who's next?
Guerrier? Only good for three innings.
Bonser? Either a strikeout or a hard hit almost every AB. Too risky. Not enough control.
Durbin? Injury problems. Hard fastball, and that's about it.
Gassner? Ugh.
Liriano needs to start - at AAA or MLB. His "weaknesses" are control and stamina (and maintaining control while stamina starts to drain). Being the new OMM is a poor fit for him.
(I feel the need to note that Liriano's control would be just fine for most teams. I think the Silva/Radke philosophy of "no walks. EVER" has the standards for this club set a little high.)
Without Lohse, this team is basically saying, "No starter may get seriously hurt or have a season of major personal sucking time, or we aren't going to compete." It's a big risk - although with C. Montgomery Pohlad at the helm, it might be one the team has to take.
Posted by: neutrino boi at December 4, 2005 08:39 PMApparently AJ Pierzynski got caught in the middle of a brawl at a professional wrestling event. See http://tinyurl.com/cb3wr for details.
Posted by: talldrinkowater at December 4, 2005 09:40 PMI would trade Rincon in a heart beat...first off, you could get a lot for him...second, he wouldn't be terribly hard to replace(Jesse Crain, Guerrier)...we could do it...also, and this just a more personal reason, I really feel kinda dirty rooting for a guy who has been suspended for steroids.
Posted by: Josh at December 4, 2005 10:53 PM"Liriano is, of course, Santana 2: Electric Boogaloo"
And there is a good chance that he'll be the best thing since Sliced Bread.
Just Say No to trading Rincon. I don't think one of the game's best set-up men would be that easy to replace. And he's still pretty cheap.
I wouldn't be displeased with the keep Lohse/sign Mueller route. Even if that was it for the offseason because there'd be no money to do much more, I'd say that, along with Castillo, would be a net gain over last year's team. Add in rebound years from a couple of the slackers (Dr. Morneau and Stew, I'm looking in your direction) and the continued development of Mauer ... it could work out.
Regardless, it should be fun going into the winter meetings knowing there's actually a chance that the Twins will do something big, like signing an actual, real-live free agent above the level of Juan Castro.
Posted by: Andre at December 5, 2005 12:15 AMBG, if for nothing else, I am quite glad that you referenced the TNT today. Good stuff. And as Boo is my BF, I would very much prefer that he not be traded. Oh, and I don't think he'd be easy to replace.
Posted by: AT at December 5, 2005 01:52 AMSo AJ will be managing wrestlers on PPV? and "Fellow Major League Baseball players are expected to be in attendance"? I'd dearly love to see Dougie and AJ there together, on pro wrestling.
Posted by: AT at December 5, 2005 01:57 AMI shall cause some serious havoc at the Twins front office if they trade Boo -
WW
I agree with the Lohse factor. I like Lohse, and he had a good year last year. I think we were all a little bit down on him simply based on 2004 (*shudder*), but while he had some very bad games, he had many very good games in which he kept us in the game easily. Liriano did get beat around a bit in September, so I think it might not be a bad idea to give him some work in AAA before coming up to the big leagues. He's still young--don't push him too far and ruin him.
Posted by: Just Beth at December 5, 2005 08:16 AMI've heard that Terry and Gardy are pretty strongly against using Guerrier in the starting ro. The problem is that he has only one overpowering "strikeout" pitch-- after one time through the order, batters have him figured out and start to tag him for plenty of hits. So Shaggy should stay a reliever this year unless he somehow develops another strong pitch.
Posted by: aussie at December 5, 2005 08:48 AMLet's not be in a rush to put 2 unproven youngsters in the starting rotation. Yes, I include Baker in the "unproven" category. He's looked good, but I'm not ready to count on BOTH he and Liriano being ready for the long haul at the same time. Kyle is an excellent 4/5 guy in the rotation. He just doesn't look so good as #3 or higher, but many teams would kill to have a #4 or #5 like him. Count me in the "keep Electric Bugaloo 2 in AAA for a little while" crowd.
Posted by: e-9 at December 5, 2005 09:43 AM"How much should character factor in building a team? How do you treat players with great numbers who have been cast out of their own clubhouses for gross character problems?"
Dear Batgirl
This seems to becoming a bigger and bigger question every year it seems and I don't think there is a real definitive answer. There have been teams that have been successful with players that are thought to be bad teamates, and there have been teams that were successful with a "we are family" type of team. I think the real answer is dependent on the teams goal. If you can get a whacko to buy in to the team goal and carefully manage the player then go with the talent. I also think you need to explain right away to the player and establish certain boundries of what is and is not exceptable and handle any issues quickly.
The way the Bulls and Jordan handled Rodman is an example of how it can work, The Eagles/TO of how it can fail.
p.e.m.
Oh and whatcha gonna do brother when Pierzynski-mania runs over you !!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: public enemy mike at December 5, 2005 12:23 PMSeveral problems with Williams' column (it's not really an article, more like an opinion piece with one source).
1. Baker is not a rookie. He has not had a complete year under his belt, but he has not had a bad start in seven, six of which were quality starts. He's a solid #4 starter now.
2. The Twins don't need a fifth starter until mid May. Gardy has said he will send Liriano down to get innings in Rochester and bring him up when they need a fifth starter. This indicates that the Twins are already planning on trading Lohse.
3. Most teams do not count on five solid guys but use the fith spot to develop promising pitchers. In this regard, the Twins will be on par with their competition throughout the league.
4. If Baker is the #4 starter (and an upgrade over Loshe), the Twins only need to improve on Joe Mays to have a better fifth starter than last year. Liriano is better right now than Joe (Dead Arm) Mays by about five feet on the fastball and 10 strikeouts per game.
5. The Twins still could sign Mueller and use Lohse in a package to acquire a slugger. Williams acts as though if the Twins sign Mueller, they would not have the money to get a DH. How about Stewie, JC, Lohse, and Bonsor to the Phillies for Bobby Abreu and cash? Put Ford in left, Abreu in right, and use Kubel as the DH. Not that it would happen with Abreu, but use his name as a place holder for a middle of the order bat, and, this kind of deal might be available and wouldn't cost the Twins more than the combined salaries of the players they ship (Carlos Lee, NE1?)
Posted by: cmathewson at December 5, 2005 01:19 PMAJ moonlighting as a pro wrestler... why am I reminded of Kent Hrbek?
-ex
Posted by: expatriate at December 5, 2005 01:44 PMBG,
Just an FYI - your link to Twins boy has an extra double-quote in the URL.
John
Posted by: Twins Geek at December 5, 2005 01:47 PMDear e-9,
Lyle is an excellent nothing, let alone a 4/5 starter. Much is apparently being made of the Lohse Factor, but in my mind, that is just another iteration of the Rivas Factor. We would instantly improve simply be cutting him, and if we can get a decent bat in exchange? Merry fudgin' Christmas. I'm amazed anyone would offer anything for him. If someone offers a box of new balls and an authentic 1987 Brunansky jersey, I'd leap at that deal and laugh at the other guy for making the deal. Because Lyle, ladies and gentleman, is a garbage-y headcase, not because that would be a totally sweet jersey to have. Which it would. I miss Bruno.
Warmest Personal Regards,
Chris
Dear Mr. Geek,
Ass-crap. Thank you.
Sincerely,
BG
p.s. Mmmm....Bruno.
Posted by: Batgirl at December 5, 2005 01:58 PMI think if Twins can get a decent DH for Lohse--trade him. Assuming Baker is number 4 starter--send Liriano down till All Star break. For fifth starter (not needed till about May 10) use a combination of Shaggy and the old man (he is still with us right??).
Anybody else notice that Marlins clearance sale continues--LaDuca to the Mets (this is ridiculous)
Posted by: DAM-DC Twins Fan at December 5, 2005 02:33 PM"How about Stewie, JC, Lohse, and Bonsor to the Phillies for Bobby Abreu and cash?"
With all respect, if the Twins EVER trade Stewie, I will go down to the front office and make sure T.R. never has a moments rest untill the day he retires.
Posted by: Twinsboy at December 5, 2005 02:54 PMPaulie Byrd, in addition to looking sorta like Frasier Crane, gets points in my book for having an old school pitching windup. He doesn't have the ol' lean-back-high-kick of guys like Jim (underwear!) Palmer, but he does do the back-step, and the swinging-arms and stuff. Always fun to watch.
Posted by: Paul at December 5, 2005 04:10 PMhttp://www.startribune.com/stories/509/5763044.html
From the STrib, Gardy wants to offer a 2-year deal to our old friend Hrbie (tongue-in-cheek). As my all time NSMC, I would love bringing the big guy back home.
Posted by: DiggityDino at December 5, 2005 04:16 PMIn addition, Casttillo has had some success against the Byrd-man, and has a .571 average against him over a few apperances.
Posted by: Twinsboy at December 5, 2005 04:59 PMDear Twinsboy,
>>With all respect, if the Twins EVER trade Stewie, I will go down to the front office and make sure T.R. never has a moments rest untill the day he retires.
Let's see, a prematurely aging outfielder with no arm who has been injured most of the last two years and, as a result, has not been nearly as productive as his super-human 2003 and is due to make $6.5 million this year followed by free agency.
Light Saber Noises is better than Stewie in every way right now, will make a few thou over the minimum and is tied up 'till 2010.
IMO, If we can get Stewie thrown into a deal for a big bat, we should do it in a heartbeat to free up his salary for said bat and free up left for LSN.
The only thing standing in the way is few teams want to take on such a salary for a defensive liability with little or no power, no matter how good he is at working the count (which he wasn't last year, BTW).
Cordially,
cmathewson
Posted by: cmathewson at December 5, 2005 05:26 PMI think trading rincon would be a horrible idea. Not only is he an outstanding pitcher he is great for team moral. I always sit in left field and when hes in the bullpen hes always joking around and keeping the bullpen spirits up. Sure we could get a lot for him but I think it would have a horrible impact on the team as a whole. Money isn't the only thing you can think about when trading a player
Posted by: katie at December 5, 2005 06:06 PMLet's see, a prematurely aging outfielder with no arm who has been injured most of the last two years and, as a result, has not been nearly as productive as his super-human 2003 and is due to make $6.5 million this year followed by free agency.
Light Saber Noises is better than Stewie in every way right now, will make a few thou over the minimum and is tied up 'till 2010.
IMO, If we can get Stewie thrown into a deal for a big bat, we should do it in a heartbeat to free up his salary for said bat and free up left for LSN.
The only thing standing in the way is few teams want to take on such a salary for a defensive liability with little or no power, no matter how good he is at working the count (which he wasn't last year, BTW).
You have some good points, but I think that you forget what a clutch hitter Stewie is, providing almost all of our clutch moments thoughout the time that he was playing in 2005. He also is a veteran presence in the clubhouse, again providing something that we had very little of.
And "Not nearly as productive"? Surely you jest. Stewie had more stolen bases, walks, RBIs, HRs, triples, doulbes, hits, and runs scored in 2005 than in 2003 AND 2004.
Posted by: Twinsboy at December 5, 2005 06:14 PMWhat about Williams' story Monday in the PiPress that Cuddyer might be the Twins' starting DH? (Click on my name for it.)
No Mike Piazza, no Darth Thomas, just another utility infielder in the lineup ... to hit?
Posted by: The Commish at December 5, 2005 06:46 PM"What about Williams' story Monday in the PiPress that Cuddyer might be the Twins' starting DH? (Click on my name for it.)
No Mike Piazza, no Darth Thomas, just another utility infielder in the lineup ... to hit?"
I agree, it doesn't sound like a very good idea, but Cuddles had some good numbers as a DH this season. Click my name for a description.
Dear Twisboy,
You said:
>>And "Not nearly as productive"? Surely you jest. Stewie had more stolen bases, walks, RBIs, HRs, triples, doulbes, hits, and runs scored in 2005 than in 2003 AND 2004.
I had to look it up, because I know he was better in 2003 than last year. Of course, he was better overall last year than in 2004, but 2004 was a half a season of ABs because of the planter faciaitis.
2003:
90 R 176 H 44 2B 2 3B 13 HR 73 RBI 4 SB 52 BB 66 SO .307/.364./.459 263 TB Fourth in AL MVP voting
2005:
69 R 151 H 27 2B 3 3B 10 HR 56 RBI 7 SB 34 BB 73 SO .274/.323/.388 214 TB
So you see, only steals and triples compare favorably, and those are pratically negligible stats for Stewie since 2002.
Not in these stats are other important things like pitches seen (at least for a lead-off hitter). I couldn't find it, but I read on SethSpeaks in August that he had seen (fouled off or taken) like a third again as many pitches in 2003 as 2005. By Seth's SABR numbers, Stewie was the worst lead-off guy in the league last year. Seth's analysis hit home after watching Stewie ground out to the thrid baseman on the first pitch for like the 100th time in August.
Now some would say, he was hurt in June running into the foul pole out west and again in August running into the wall at the Metrodome. And that might explain some of the drop off. But he's an old 32 years, having played on turf in the majors for 10 years. His legs just don't have it anymore, and he needs them to drive the ball and to run the bases, two areas where the numbers have been in precipitous decline since 2002.
And his foot still isn't 100%. He never complains, but I can see it. Whereas he relished 10-pitch at bats in 2003, he seemed eager to get out of the batters box last year, which is why he didn't have the OBP or the patience that was supposed to remind free swingers like Hunter and Jones to cool their jets.
Now that we have Castillo, who is the consumate lead-off hitter and a better role model for the hackers, Stewie's presence is not as important. And if we sign Mueller, Stewie won't have a place at the top of the order with Castillo, Mueller, and Mauer hitting first second and third respectively.
Combine that with his defensive liabilities, a better replacement waiting for an everyday opportunity, and the fact that he will likely be gone in any event before 2007, and he's expendable, if anyone will take him in a package that includes pitching.
Cordially,
cmathewson
Posted by: cmathewson at December 5, 2005 10:13 PMAgain, my friend, I notice some more good points, and I admit that I was only looking at his stats in Minnesota, I still can't believe that:
A. We will get anyone like Abreu for Stew, or
B. That TR has seriously considered trading Stewie. He has been the best thing to happen to this team for a while now, and you can't give up on him judging on 1 season.
*As a final note, I would like to point out that Stew has only hit below .300 in two seasons since becoming a full major leauger
Posted by: Twinsboy at December 6, 2005 04:06 PMDear Twinsboy,
Now that it is apparent that the Twins will not sign Mueller, Stewie would have a spot as the number 2 hitter. If they keep him, I hope the Twins find a way to use him at DH and find "professional hitters" for the outfield.
Posted by: cmathewson at December 6, 2005 04:55 PMAJ getting involved with wrestling reminded me of how there used to be a pro wrestler named Greg Gagne and a Twins SS named Greg Gagne.
Posted by: let's go mets at December 8, 2005 10:31 AM