Beware the ides of the fat contract, Batlings!

Look at what happened to Halladay last year. 8-8 with a 4-plus ERA.

Sometimes the carrot needs to be dangled for 3 or 4 years before the Big Deal gets signed.
(It worked for Ace Bitch Sock Mark Buehrle)

6 Days Til P&C!

Ilk

Please, JohansPeople, please.

PLEASE get it done!

I said it from the beginning: if a multi-year deal for Johan gets done this winter, it will be based on what Roy Halladay got.

Bows humbly, (snark)

frightwig

Seriously, it's good news if the Twins are offering $40/4 with an option on a 5th year. It means they should be very close to meeting any reasonable demands by Johan's side.

This offer fills me with hope. Johan can't be asking for TOO much more...can he?

I proclaim this an excellent offer and I would urge Santana to take it. Because after this contract is over, he will be 30/31 and could still make MEGA-SUPER-DUPER-BIG-BUCKS somewhere else instead of merely MEGA-BIG-BUCKS here.

Of course, Terry Ryan listens to me as often as he listens to say, erm, Kenny Williams.

Hmm a bit of ol' exuberence there. That should read "Of course Johan Santana listens to me as often as Terry Ryan listesn to Kenny Williams."

Would that these comments had an edit button.

Of course, Johan should be reminded that a few World Series rings would enhance his value in the open marketplace, and by signing a four year deal, he pretty much guarantees that the Twins will be contenders for those 4 years. He helps lead them to the WS, and cashes in. Sounds like a plan to me. Of course, what do I know?

Would that these comments had a delete button.

YankeeFan

Oh, please, please, Mr. President, sign this one!

It would be interesting to speculate (both seriously and humorously) on what else he's looking for. A no-trade? Video highlights to be played in the clubhouse after each game of batters looking silly? Flags from Venezuela flown at every game?

Between him and Bradke, we'd have a half to a third of the Twins salary budget. (I'm not saying that's a bad thing.)

Beth

Dear Johan,

We would advise you to take the deal, because you just never know when your wheels will turn into brittle china doll legs or when your arm will go "ping."

Sincerely,
Juan Gonzalez & Joe Mays

FOUR MORE YEARS! FOUR MORE YEARS!

Nobody loves Johan more than I do, but I do question the wisdom of signing a pitcher coming off a historic season to a long-term deal when he's still arbitration eligible. If he's this good again next year -- and healthy! -- then sure, sign him. But I'd want to make sure he was going to maintain this level of excellence before I paid for it (see, e.g., Roy Halliday, Joe Mays, etc.).

Of course, perhaps I'm wrong. Can somebody please explain it to me?

Goober:

I completely agree with you. Yes, he's absolutely fantastic. But does a huge, multi-year big-money contract guarantee continued fantasticness? I hope so, but I don't know.

However, backing away and going to arbitration runs a risk. The organization has iced him so much (clearly to save money in the long run) that he may be unwilling to negotiate reasonably next off-season if he does have another great season. And that might cost the Twins dearly. It's really hard to say.

And, could it be that since the media/press wants this to happen now, it's going to happen now? Do they hold that kind of weight? Again, I don't know.

Yours,
k-bro

Goober,

I generally would agree with your query. However, in this case, you have two options. You could try to sign a potential dominant pitcher for the next 4 years at a relatively low amount of money, if he is what we think he is. If it turns out he is merely a human being pitching (instead of the literal pitching machine we believe he is) then you are potentially overpaying him by 3 million per (average pitchers seem to be making at least 6-8 million per these days). Your other option is arbitrate, pay him 6 million, and see what happens. Then, if he has close to the season he just had, he could command upwards of $15 million per (bye bye twins). Again, if he should become an average pitcher, he's looking at 6-8 million.

I think the downside of losing a dominating pitcher next year is much more daunting than potentially overpaying a middle-of-the-road pitcher by a couple million. Which would hurt the fan base more (a scenario that we have all agreed is just adding fuel to the Chicago Fire) -- watching a good Santana go 13-12 with a 4.7 ERA for $10 million with the Twins, or watching El Presidente go 26-1 with a 1.4 ERA for the Yanks or Red Sox (or LA with a 0.7 ERA)?

Next, this isn't Roy Halliday (or Esteban Loaiza) who were pretty mediocre for a while, then had a GREAT season, then faded into obscurity. Santana has had pretty good numbers all around, and all indicators are pointing to his long term success. I think a distinction can be made there.

Finally, is Joe Maya such a bust? Injuries can happen regardless of whether a pitcher has been dominant over 1, 2 or 10 years. Isn't that what insurance policies are for? I mean, even with all of Peeedro's injuries, the Mutts were able to insure him (by parlaying the Beltran insurance policy). So I don't think 10 million per over 4 years has too much downside for the Twins here.

Respectfully,
YankeeFan

Roy Halladay had 2 great season before the contract and all signs point to him being completely healthy this season. To keep using him as a reason to not resign Santana is going overboard. You guys act Halladay's career is over.

If you are all that scared of Johan getting hurt don't sign him and let him become a Yankee in two years to replace the Unit.

The reason to get it done now is to keep the player and the fans happy. If they are only able to get a 1 year deal done this year, do all of you Twin's fans want to go through this again next off season ?

I agree that the potential reward is more than worth the risk in this case. Not to be the prophet of doom, but I think we all realize that if Santana continues to be one of the game's elite pitchers, he will without question be gone from the Twins at some future point in time. The goal is to postpone that time as long as possible. If the Twins go to arbitration now, and Johan has a repeat of last year, then I think it is very likely he would simply ride out the second arbitration year with an eye on the big, big bucks at the end of that time. Locking him in for four years or five years now postpones the inevitable, which is the best we can hope for.

Smitty

P.S. Mimiru, I suggest hitting the Preview button and staring at the darn thing for a minute or two before you post. Works for me!

Goober,
I too am in a quandry on this one. If George "I've got money, lets spend it" was our owner, it would be a no-brainer. But assuming The Great Santana wins every game he pitches, that is only 25% of the season. We need to have money to keep quality defensive players as well as some consistant bats. I want Santana to stay, I understand why he would ask for a lot, but I also don't want to go back to the ugly days of yore when the best a Twins fan could hope for is to lose less than 100 games a season.

That said, PAY THE MAN WHATEVER HE WANTS TO KEEP HIM HAPPY AND IN MINNESOTA.

sandee

I can see that it's a tough call to open up the vault for anybody for a period of four or five years, and there's certainly no shortage of examples of box-car free-agent signings that have gone sour. Twinsgeek today expresses considerable equivocation about jumping into a long-term deal with Santana this year, and seems to conclude that it might make more sense for the Twins to work out a multiyear deal with him next year.

The risks of a long-term deal with anyone are pretty obvious. But in assessing those risks, I think that there are huge differences between individual players, based partly on performance, and partly on character. I don't think too many T-Wolves fans think that Kevin Garnett's first big contract was a disastrous mistake either when it was made or now in hindsight, and aside from the bizarre fact that the Rangers paid A-Rod almost double the next-best offer to him, I doubt many baseball fans would deny that in the strange economics of baseball, A-Rod earns his gazillions as much as anybody could.

So what to do with Santana? My own view is that Santana will never be less expensive to the Twins than he is right now. They've got a chance to reward him for past performance, secure his services for what will probably be Santana's best four or five years, and blunt whatever resentment that Santana might harbor for past exploitation. If the Twins can get that done for $40-45 million, they're getting a hell of a deal.

If they don't get it done this year, then Santana can safely assume that the Twins have no interest in signing him to a long-term deal, because there's no reason to think that the team would substantially sweeten its offer next year in similar circumstances. They'll be looking at arbitration again next year with the numbers jacked up $3 to $5 million, and the Twins might be tempted to trade Santana in '06 to some desperate AL East contender with hot young cheap prospects to offer. When Santana is eligible for free-agency in 2007, there is no way in hell the Twins will compete with the best offers that will come Santana's way.

Am I not assuming brilliant performance from Santana in '05 and '06? I sure am. Why wouldn't I? He had a streak of 12 starts last year when he gave up 4 or fewer hits in 11 of them. After returning lightly to earth for a few starts, when he was merely winning, he had 6 more games of 4 or fewer hits. That's amazing, and not so much characteristic of a Cy Young winner as it is of a generation's dominant pitcher. His Sept. win over Balt (14 K's, 0 walks) was a vintage Clemens game, and the sort of performance that the Loaizas and Halladays of the world simply cannot deliver.

I don't think last year was a fluke, either, as his 12-3 mark in 2003 dropped a big hint as to what would come in 2004. Santana's got three awesome pitches, an excellent understanding of how to use them, and seems to take excellent care of himself.

Pitching is by its nature, however, a self-destructive activity. Santana's body is certain to deteriorate over the years. No one now can predict whether he's going to break down like Koufax (done at 31) or instead like the Big Unit or Clemens (still overpowering at 40 and beyond). Nevertheless, I'd rather have him in his late 20's with less mileage than sign him to his next deal in his early 30's, and I think the risk of Santana's performance is well worth accepting.

Something I pointed out to Twinsgeek in his feedback section of the Santana column was that if the Twins don't sign him NOW after the season he had, especially if the reports of his irritation at his 2002 and 2003 treatment by the club (i.e. bullpen) are true, he's going to feel disrespected and then it won't matter how much money the Twins put on the table, he'll walk.

If it makes you feel better about the Twins spending that kind of money on Santana, I heard that TR was going to take out insurance on Bradke's contract, and Santana's, if he was signed. So in a worst-case-scenario that we don't like to think about, we wouldn't necessarily be throwing money away.

That's just what I heard, though.

Just Beth