Twins to El Presidente: We're going to offer you one meeeelllion dollars!!!!
From the PiPress:
The Twins have made their first offer to pitcher Johan Santana: $19.5 million for three years. Industry sources say it could take as much as $48 million over four years to sign the Cy Young Award winner to a multiyear deal.Posted by Batgirl at January 12, 2005 10:34 AMThe first year of the Twins' offer is for $4.5 million, significantly less than the left-hander could win in salary arbitration. While the Twins want to sign Santana, 25, to a three-year deal, Santana is seeking a two-year or four-year contract.
The Twins are expected to make a four-year offer as early as today.
Cough it up Carl...
Now is not the time to continue being a cheapskate.
Start with 7 million for the first year, and go from there.
Posted by: bubblemint at January 12, 2005 10:54 AMGive him whatever it takes. Lock him down for 4. We need El Presidente!
Posted by: Stacy at January 12, 2005 11:03 AMThe Twins have made some questionable moves in the past few years, but they are smart enough to know they NEED to do this before he's worth waaaaaaay more than they can afford. Go for it Carl.
Posted by: ForMorneau at January 12, 2005 11:40 AMThis is a no brainer: a 25 year old lefthanded power pitcher who is currently the best on the planet and a darn nice guy to boot. Offer 5 years at $60 million and don't even think twice about it.
Posted by: BadAndy48 at January 12, 2005 11:51 AMI'm with BadAndy48. Offer a 5 year deal, pay Santana what's he's worth, and then be prepared to trade him in year 4 or 5 if he continues to be supernatural. If he does, continue to be supernatural that is, then the Twins probably won't be able to afford him when he's in his 30s anyway, and just think of the haul we could trade him for when the time comes. Especially if we send him to a rich team run by an unusually stupid GM, like the Mets or Washington. "Why, yes, we will give you the whole store, the kitchen sink, the shirts off our backs, and our firstborn prospects for Mr. Santana. Thank you ever so much for offering."
The great Santana trade of 2009 could be the deal that wins the Twins' pennants in the mid-2010s. All it'll take is a fair five-year contract today.
Posted by: BallWonk at January 12, 2005 12:01 PMNo offense to any Twins fan, but as a Yankee fan I hope Pohlad continues in his cheapsake ways and low balls Santana so bad he doesn't want to stay, so that we can sign him next year. Ah Randy, Johan, Moose,Pavano, and Wright I get happy just thinking about that.
Now I know what BG will say.... hands of our president, but a yankee fan can dream, can't he ?
Posted by: mike at January 12, 2005 12:23 PMI don't understand why they even bothered to make that offer. If I was Santana, I'd be insulted. The Twins would do extremely well to sign him to a long-term deal for 10 mil a year. Why not make a 4 years, 40 mil offer that would actually put the team and Santana in the same universe?
Posted by: cowdisciple at January 12, 2005 12:39 PMHello? Mr. Pohlad? Are you listening?
If you make Johan mad, he might go away. Um, nobody wants that, right?
Posted by: k-bro at January 12, 2005 12:58 PMRandy Johnson is getting $16 million a year for the next three years... I think Santana with his Koufaxian numbers would be a bargain at $16 million a year in his mid 20s.
Of course you all know that the problem does not lie in the cost of Santana, but the amount of money the Twins will be able to spend to surround him with players over the next 2-4 years (call it the Texas A-Rod factor).
It could be that if the Twins can only afford $80 million in payroll a year (I know that Pohlad spends less than $60M, but that doesn't mean he can't afford $80M and still turn a profit) they can't afford to have 20% of it paid to one player. Of course, all of this should be irrelevant, because he would become valuable for trade considerations in the future and therefore should be paid accordingly.
All I know is, he should be paid, and he should remain in Minnesota. Perhaps they can work out a 'percentage of luxury-tax income' clause in the contract. This way, as other teams push salaries higher over the next 4 years, Johan gets paid more because he has to compete against those clubs....
Ok, maybe a dumb idea that requires more thought.
YankeeFan
Posted by: YankeeFan at January 12, 2005 01:30 PMYankeeFan
Pohlad keeps his payroll around 54 million, he also claims that he loses over 15 million a season because of the dome and poor ticket sales.The Twins will never see an 80 million dollar payroll with Pohlad
Again, I would hate to see BatGirl and her Batlings sad, but I would love to see Johan in Yankee Pinstripes, and as the Twins here have said 4.5 million, while alot of money, is an insult to some one that just had one of the greatest single seasons. I believe that the Yanks have middle relief guys that make more then 4.5 million.
I think Santana made 1.6 million last year, and 4.5 is a huge raise, but when you compare to other pitchers of his calibur its a weak offer. The twins should start with 8 million, I mean Kevin Millwood got 7 mil and he was 12-10 or something like that.
Having the best two left handers in the game with the Unit and Johan would be awesome :)
MITTS OFF!
Posted by: Batgirl at January 12, 2005 01:46 PMI know, I know !
Just saying if the Twins brass aren't smart enough to do the right thing for Johan, Batgirl, and all fans of Twins baseball, I know a team that will.
/e takes mitts off BG's president.
Posted by: mike at January 12, 2005 01:50 PMMike and YankeeFan,
You guys certainly are putting a lot of eggs in the baskets of a 41 year old with a bad knee, and Wright and Pavano, who have each had one good season in the last five years. This season is no gimme, especially now that the Red Sox have Clement, Miller, Schilling, Arroyo and Wakefield.
Clement and Miller are underrated and capable of being downright nasty. Let's hope Wright listened to everything Leo Mazzone had to say and teaches Pavano. The Yankees don't have a bad rotation, but it's no slam dunk to win the AL East either.
Of course, I'm a little biased, but I think we have an underrated pitching staff here on the North Side of Chicago who could give anyone a run for their money. Forget Yankee pinstripes, El Presidente, how about Cubby pinstripes?
Posted by: cubsfan36 at January 12, 2005 02:26 PMI believe that the Yanks have middle relief guys that make more then 4.5 million.
Steve Karsay makes $6 million per year, and I'm just guessing here, but I think Johan is worth a bit more.
Posted by: ChrisS at January 12, 2005 02:30 PM"This season is no gimme, especially now that the Red Sox have Clement, Miller, Schilling, Arroyo and Wakefield."
Johnson is better then Schilling even @41. Miller has never been healthy for a full season. Clement and Pavano may equal out, but Pavano has done it in the post season, can you say the same for Clement ? Arryo, doesn't scare me, and Wakefield can have games were he is real good, and games where gives up 10 runs.
Ortiz is the only player on the Sox I would takeover the player on the Yanks, that starts. I'm not worried about the red sox at all the season. You've heard of championship hangovers, this one might be another 86 years. but enough Yankee talk. this is a Twin's blog.
Posted by: mike at January 12, 2005 02:34 PMCurious if Santana is amenable to a "hometown discount" as Radke twice has been, and as Rick Aguilera was for the Twinkies back in the day.
If so, four years at $32 million, escalating base salaries by year, should do it. If not, four years at $40 million. He's probably a bargain even at the higher price: this is a guy with killer stuff and great attitude, and the team's developmental approach of pitching him out of the 'pen until he was ready to start full-time probably makes him much less of an injury risk than your average ace in his mid-20s.
Hope they figure out how to get it done.
Posted by: jeffstoned at January 12, 2005 02:45 PMJust to remind everyone, Johan K is NOT -- I repeat NOT -- a free agent right now. He has two more years of arbitration before that happens. I would not be entirely surprised if they go to an arbiter this year with 6-8 mil the outcome.
IF, el presidente is able to repeat his performance (which we all know he will), I expect something in the order of 4 years, 35 million to be offered.
Let's not forget the lesson the Twins front office learned from Joe "I had one good season and have been grossly overpaid since" Mays.
Posted by: double-a at January 12, 2005 03:10 PMNot for Nothin' but,
El Presidente is Dennis Martinez, not Johan.It's not a good idea to steal other player's nicknames.
No one referred to Mickey Lolich as "The Mick" did they ?
Posted by: mike at January 12, 2005 03:19 PMdouble-a is right. Johan is not in a position to bargain as if he were a free agent, so projecting a "fair" salary for him based on what Randy Johnson or other top veteran pitchers are paid is an apples/oranges comparison. Roy Halliday is probably closer to the mark.
If Johan gets a 4-year deal this winter, he will probably have to accept a salary in the first two years that is slightly less than what he could get through arbitration. Maybe $5m next year, $7.5m or $8m in 2006. That ought to be the trade-off for gaining more longterm security.
It looks like the Twins have offered $4.5m in 2005, $6.5m in 2006, and $8m in 2007. They're lowballing him, and I'd rather they didn't dick around like that, but maybe they're not all that far off. Add $3-4m to the total, give him a 4th year at $12m, and they might have a deal. If not, we'll see how he holds up in his second full season as a starter, and maybe positions will change next winter.
Posted by: frightwig at January 12, 2005 03:31 PMOne more comment, then I will tie this back into the Twins.
Mike, and please take this in the non-offensive mutual-love-of-baseball manner in which it's intended, you would honestly take Hideki Matsui over Manny Ramirez? Bernie Williams over Johnny Damon or Torii Hunter? Tony Womack over whomever ends up at second for the Sox? Bellhorn will make up on offense whatever he gives up defensively. The whole right side of that Yankee infield is below average at best. Womack won't repeat his 2004, and Tino is, umm, how do I say this politely, past his prime. Dr. Morneau will end up with approximately 25-30 more HR than Tino and probably 50 more RBI.
Posted by: cubsfan36 at January 12, 2005 03:37 PMBut let's not forget, he's only 25. He could bide his time for the next two years and then bolt rather quickly once he becomes a free agent. He's already irritated with the Twins for not making him a starter sooner. And, he lost in arbitration last year. Add that to the lowballing he's getting now, and some real resentment could start to build. I really don't think he needs to worry about security; he controls his own destiny. If he keeps performing, and there's no reason to believe he won't, he'll be a goldmine in 2007.
Posted by: k-bro at January 12, 2005 03:40 PM"No one referred to Mickey Lolich as "The Mick" did they ?"
---------------
Of course Mantle's father took the name for his son from his own favorite ballplayer, Mickey Cochrane. I assume that he was not known as "The Cock." Actually, Baseball Reference says that Mickey Cochrane was alternatively called "Black Mike"--so there goes my plan to assign that nickname to you. How does "The Mick" grab you?
Seriously, in a world where multiple players may be known as Black Jack, The Kid, Lefty, Dizzy, Whitey, or Pudge, I think there is room for two pitchers of different generations to be called El Presidente. Dennis Martinez is El Presidente in Nicaragua. Our Johan K. Santana is El Presidente and supreme ruler of Canazuela and all hearts of Twins Nation.
Viva Santana! Viva El Presidente!!
Posted by: frightwig at January 12, 2005 03:46 PMyou would honestly take Hideki Matsui over Manny Ramirez?
Yes I would. I like Manny but he has as many faults as he does good qualities, and remember the sox wanted him gone last year, and have even talked about trading him this year.
Bernie Williams over Johnny Damon?
I would take Bernie based off of all the things he has done for us, plus I think Damon is over rated., he had a terrible play-offs and if Brown and Vazquez didn't suck as bad as they did, Damon would have been a non-factor. But I would take Torii, if batgirl would let me, but I never mentioned twins players, only red sox.
Tony Womack over whomever ends up at second for the Sox? Bellhorn will make up on offense whatever he gives up defensively.
Womack always plays well in the play-offs, and Bellhorn struggled big time. SO yes I take Womack.
And I will take Tino/Giambi/who ever takes Giambi's place after he is cut over Miller.
Again I wasn't commenting on Twins players.Batgirl might get mad and ban me if I tried to take too many.
Posted by: mike at January 12, 2005 04:04 PM"But let's not forget, he's only 25. He could bide his time for the next two years and then bolt rather quickly once he becomes a free agent."
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Right, that's a possibility. But if the Twins are just going to give him everything he wants, there's no reason for them to rush into giving him top dollar now. If nothing happens this winter, he'll still be back next season, and there will be another exclusive chance to negotiate a longterm deal next year--and give him top dollar then. TR shouldn't waste his bargaining position, or get overly committed to someone who could get hurt like Mays did, or Halliday just did last year.
Let's face it: Johan has had elbow problems on at least two occasions in the last four years. The workload on his arm last year went from 158.1 IP in 2003 to 240 IP in 2004. He's at an age when his body may still be maturing. We don't really know how well he will physically take the increased workload of this past season. Prior to last year, the most innings he ever threw in a season was 160 IP in Class A, way back in 1999. He has all the talent in the world, but locking him into an expensive, longterm deal now still is a significant risk.
Since Johan is a second year arbitration-eligible case, Terry Ryan now has more bargaining leverage on Johan than he ever will again. It's good for the club if he uses it for any advantages he can gain.
Posted by: frightwig at January 12, 2005 04:09 PMFrightwig
You are saying that there is no rush to get Santana done and the Twins should gamble and go one year of arbitration this year and see if he has another good season, and then give him the money before the 2nd arbitration. I say keep the players happy, keep the fans happy. Why turn a guy against the orginization? If the Twins will just give him the money next year anyway, well give it to him now, make a statement other then we are one of the cheapest teams in baseball.
Step up to the plate and do the right thing. If the twins don't want to keep Santana just about ever team in the league would like to have a 25 yo lefty that can be an ace for 7-8 years.
Posted by: mike at January 12, 2005 04:15 PMMike, I would love to keep the player, fans and team all happy. One small problem: our owner is a gigantic tight-wad, we can't throw money at our problems like some other teams in pinstripes.
Yours lovingly,
HooliganKat
That is the unfortunate part of the players not allowing a salary cap. Again I would love it if the Yankees could end up with Johan, but at the same time it would suck for Twin's fan to have that happen.
And remember tight-wad Pohlad is worth 2.5 billion and the 4th or 5th richest owner baseball, while Steinbrenner isn't even in the top ten.
Posted by: mike at January 12, 2005 05:58 PMCubsFan36 says: Of course, I'm a little biased, but I think we have an underrated pitching staff here on the North Side of Chicago who could give anyone a run for their money. Forget Yankee pinstripes, El Presidente, how about Cubby pinstripes?
Hardly underrated. The Cubs staff is viewed by many (including this ChiSox fan) as one of the best in the majors. Problem is they have trouble staying healthy...
BitchSoxPride,
Ilk
mike, I'm saying that if the club were to grant him everything he wishes, I wouldn't expect it to become any more expensive or difficult to do that next year. The chances of him doing something in 2005 that would suddenly make his fondest wish unaffordable next winter, whereas it could have fit TR's budget now, is relatively slight.
Maybe he will win another Cy Young, while doing something otherwordly like posting a 1.90 ERA with 330 K's, and he'll get a swelled head and listen to people who tell him he belongs in LA, Chicago, Boston, or New York; that he should wait another year and then enjoy the big FA circus.
Most likely, if healthy, I think he'll be one of the top 5 pitchers in the league, and what he wants next winter will be about what he wishes he could get now. If it happens that his arm wears down, in that case it benefits the Twins if they haven't already locked into a lavish, longterm deal, too.
I'm not saying they should be cheap; it's just smart to use whatever bargaining leverage the club has at this point. Johan right now should be willing to make prudent compromises, too. Sure, he just had a big year, but he also must be aware of how fragile a pitcher's future can be. He's had elbow problems; he's seen what happened to Joe Mays; he must know what happened to the 2003 Cy Young winner, Roy Halladay. The 2002 Cy Young Barry Zito suddenly looked awfully mortal this past year. Everybody knows about Pedro's shoulder since 2001.
Johan could make outrageous demands, unhappily settle for a 1-year deal at $6m, and resolve to test free agency in a couple years. Maybe he'll strike the motherlode in 2007, maybe blow out his elbow next season and never see one of those sweet longterm deals; or he could make a good-faith effort to reach an agreement that might pay him around $36m over the next 4 years. If I were his agent, I'd want to get him signed to a reasonable deal in Minnesota that promises Johan greater security. If his arm stays strong through the next 4 years, the Big Market riches will still be there for him later.
Posted by: frightwig at January 12, 2005 06:38 PM"And remember tight-wad Pohlad is worth 2.5 billion and the 4th or 5th richest owner baseball, while Steinbrenner isn't even in the top ten."
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I'm not going to argue that Pohlad couldn't afford to spend more money on the Twins, but comparing his personal wealth to Steinbrenner's is irrelevant. Steinbrenner never spends his own money on the Yankees payroll. He can field a $200m team because the Yankees rake in more money than any other club in the game.
Posted by: frightwig at January 12, 2005 06:42 PMFright
By the twins gambling this year and saying we will just take what the arbatration says they risk Johan having an out of this world season that drives the cost up into Pohlad won't pay levels.
Think about this lets say Johan gets awarded 8 million this year from an arbitrator and is mad that the Twins didn't just take care of him and said unflatterin things about him the meetings.( for people that don't know, in arbitration the player goes in and tells why he is worth alot of money, the team goes in and syas why he isn't.Some players really don't like to hear the team say bad things about them, I have no idea if Johan is that kind of player.)
He goes 25-4 with an era of 2.21, strikes out over three hundred, wins another Cy Young, and gets to the ALCS. If he is mad and doesn't want to sign a deal and goes to arbitration again now he might get 15 million and be able to walk at the end of the season or force a trade.
Is this the highest side of how it could back fire yes, is him blowing out his arm and not pitching again the lowest side, yes. He is the kind of player you need to take care of when you have the chance, and not worry about one hit wonder or injury.
When the risk is you could lose a great player in two years, or have a great player sour on the team and demend out, you try to avoid that happening. Whether you are a cheapskate owner or not.
Posted by: mike at January 12, 2005 07:03 PMahhh, only us yankee fans have the gall to come to batgirl's message board to talk about how great it would be to have johan in the bronx.
...and i would trade hideki and bernie for manny and johnny in an instant. i'd even throw in tony womack.
Posted by: jordan at January 12, 2005 10:12 PMAll of you people on this site who thought it was a great idea to sign Jacque Jones for $5 million can sit there with a dumb look on your face. The Twins could have taken that $5 million and given it to Johan Santana for a total of $9.5 million for 2005. Seems to me that that would have been a better investment.
Posted by: KB at January 12, 2005 11:36 PMThey wouldn't have tried near as hard to sign Jones if Kubel hadn't gone down. For some reason, Ford is prefered as 4th outfielder or something. It's a sad state of affairs. I'd join the weepy chorus if Santana left.
That said, Santana is a person who I think would compete hard for any team regardless of his personal feelings.
While Pohlad can't spend like the Yankees, for heaven's sake if this doesn't qualify as a special case, what on earth will?
Posted by: Mimiru at January 13, 2005 12:14 AMI agree with Frightwig.
The Twins need to use what leverage they have . . . which includes the fragility of a pitcher's arm . . . to make the best deal they can to keep Santana.
If the Twins make a decent offer -- I don't think the first one is very good -- and Santana doesn't take it, that's on him and then we know he's eyeing the big bucks of NYC or LA.
Look at guys like Juan Gonzalez and Magglio who turned down long-term deals and got hurt. Or look at Joe Mays, who's been kicking it for two years for big bucks. If something 'pops' in Spring Training, Johan's suddenly in career AND financial trouble. Joe Mays is just in career trouble.
I love the guy. He is the kind of player that brings people to the ballpark, sell jerseys, and most importantly keeps the Twins in contention. It seems to me it would prudent on both sides to work out a deal now.
If not, we get two more years of a stud who's pitching for a big contract, but not from the Twins. Or the Twins trade him next year and reload with prospects.
Posted by: funoka at January 13, 2005 08:10 AM>Johan right now should be willing to make prudent compromises, too.<
Good point. It is ridiculous to expect the Twins to bear 100 percent of the risk in his contract. He had the elbow problem and was a mediocre pitcher as recently as the first six weeks of last season. He is a pitch away from more problems. What if he has a good season or two and then blows out his arm? And the Twins are on the hook to pay him $12 million or $15 million each for another two or three or four seasons? If that happens (and I think it at least as likely as a 25-4 season), he would be about as tradeable as Joe Mays was the day he got hurt, and the team would be crippled. I think a long-term contract for a pitcher has to include clauses to lower the dollars if the guy can't pitch x number of innings and the team also has to set aside money to purchase an insurance policy that would repay the club if the pitcher becomes incapacitated in a baseball sense.
Posted by: Franorama at January 13, 2005 08:17 AMMike,
I am shocked, SHOCKED, that a Yankees fan thinks Damon is overrated and Bernie needs to be kept around based on past glory and services rendered.
;o)
Posted by: cubsfan36 at January 13, 2005 09:14 AMAs for Johan, I think Pohlad needs to cough up the big bucks for this guy. His elbow injury was a bone chip if I'm not mistaken. I think the proof of how his elbow feels showed up in the second half. If memory serves, the reason he struggled in the first third of the season was that he didn't fully trust his elbow. Once the Twins pitching coach convinced him he was fine, he brought down the wrath of the small market on the league for most of the season.
Plus, as Will Carroll and the good people over at Baseball Prospectus say, Johan is past the injury nexus for young pitchers. With proper usage patterns, I see no reason he can't pitch 200+ innings a year for the next ten years.
Posted by: cubsfan36 at January 13, 2005 09:18 AM"I am shocked, SHOCKED, that a Yankees fan thinks Damon is overrated and Bernie needs to be kept around based on past glory and services rendered."
Well be shocked again. This YankeeFan thinks Damon is greatly overrated. If he never grew the hair out (to bear resemblence to that Mel Gibson movie's title character), nobody would have noticed him at all. Varitek is a leader, Ortiz, Manny, Pedro, Schilling all speak for themselves, but Damon is nothing special in my opinion and the fact that people make him out to be screams "overrated."
Bernie is another animal altogether. Time will tell if he is currently overrated. If he has an injury-free year he can still put up .310 which would come with the 100RBIs, etc. While his play has declined in CF,* he is still better than half of the rest of the league out there, including Damon. Salaries, etc. being equal I would still prefer Bernie to Johnny. Although it is not based on past performance or loyalty, are you still shocked?
YankeeFan
* In my opinion Bernie was never a great centerfielder. A great centerfielder (A. Jones, T. Hunter and K. Griffey, Jr. in his prime) started breaking toward the ball's destination early, seemingly before it was hit. Bernie frequently broke the wrong way or not at all -- his incredible speed made up for his lack of timing for a while. So I don't think Bernie's skills are declining as much as his deteriorating speed is exposing his lack of skill. Incidentally, his lack of timing and intuition would explain his stealing only 144 bases (and getting caught 85 times -- 62.9%) over his long career, despite the blazing speed. He never really got the nuances of the game. Plus, BatKitty #3 has a better arm (paw?) than he ever did...
Posted by: YankeeFan at January 13, 2005 11:00 AMYankeeFan,
Not to go all stats and forget about the sass, but again I refer to Baseball Prospectus, a group far smarter than I. Their rankings of centerfielders has Damon's 2004 performance at the top of the centerfield charts, a full two wins better than Bernie. With Bernie's arthritic shoulders, it's a pretty large jump to assume an injury free season from Bernie, so I'd rather take Damon. No offense to you, YankeeFan. I also still think Corey Patterson is going to start taking walks one of these days.
FYI TwinsNation, Torii Hunter finished fifth, just ahead of Bernie, with the caveat that little of this ranking takes into account defensive ability, thereby increasing Torii's value.
Interestingly, at least for this stats nerd, Santana finished as the highest ranked player in all of the AL, a rarity for pitchers. Vlad screwed Johan out of the MVP.
Posted by: cubsfan36 at January 13, 2005 11:17 AMDear Mr.Cubsfan
While I might agree that if you based it solely on stats Damon may be a better player, one of the things that we Yankees fans are coming to realize is that not all players can be Yankees.
Giambi, Vazquez, Brown are examples of good players, but they aren't a Yankees kind of player. Bernie is a great Yankee, and he might not have been as good of a player on another team. A big part of the reason Tino is coming back is that he is a player that fits in with the Yankees.
The jury is stil out on ARod at this point if he can be a Yankee, but I think he will end up fitting nicely.
Scott Rolen may be the best thrid basemen in baseball right now, but he would make a terrible Yankee, imo.
Best of luck to your Cubs. 1908 doesn't seem too long ago does it ?
Posted by: mike at January 13, 2005 11:51 AMFirst, I have to disagree with the sentiment that Santana was "mediocre" until this season. He's been Johan K. since 2002, he just hadn't had an opportunity for 30 starts until this year. His big jump in innings might dampen our enthusiasm looking forward, but not so much you don't do everything you can to woo him into signing the dotted line.
Second, the team's current young players aren't very Twinslike. We're used to a blend of "workmanlike" players and athletically gifted types who are at times flashy and at other times striking out on sliders in the dirt. But bona-fide stars? Santana's already there, and Mauer and Morneau--if they can get over their injuries, thank you very much FieldTurf and Mr. Sabathia--look like they might get there very, very soon. I'll be curious to see how the front office approaches these players. (And yes, after offering the reigning Cy Young award winner an offer that includes a $4.5 salary for this coming season, I'm a little nervous. But hey, there's plenty of time.)
Posted by: jianfu at January 13, 2005 12:01 PMThe problem, in my opinion, with waiting a year is that, should he have another stellar season, the price goes up. What Johann wants in his "fondest wishes" unfortunately probably won't come in to play. He has an agent. Any agent that doesn't take two stellar seasons and make that a bargaining chip for, most likely, exponentially more money than one stellar season commands isn't acting in his client's best interest. I think you can figure that if the Twins go the arbitration route this year, then next year, given another great season from JKS this year, you're looking at probably close to, if not more than, double the money to sign him.
If it were me? I'd hope like hell to find a middle ground of term, guaranteed money and incentives to get it done now. But then, I guess that's what the whole negotiation thing is all about.
Posted by: mmmarkiep at January 13, 2005 12:01 PMI think its going to take somewhere around 4 years, $36 million to get Santana done. Maybe a little more.
Here's my reasoning to think that:
Look at it from Santana's point of view. The fact is, 2005 is already done; he's going to get paid for 2005 no matter what, probably on the order of $6M or so. So that 4/36 is really 3/30 for 2006-2008. Now, 2006 is his final year arb, and he's probably looking at close to $10. After that, he's looking at probably $13-15 a year. So if I'm Santana, my feeling is: you want to buy any of my $13-$15M years, fine, you get a discount for eliminating my risk, but not that big a discount. Much less than 4/36 just isn't worth it for me. I'd rather take my chances on the market when I get there.
If you wait a year, it becomes much less appealing to Santana to sign long term. At that point, he's only one year away from the open market, and there's much less incentive for him to sign with the Twins. My assumption is that either they get multiple years done this off-season or they trade him next off-season.
If I'm right, the question is whether you do 4/36+. I think I would--though I admit that it would make me queasy. Still, you have to take some risks in this business. Santana is a draw that materially helps make you competitive for the length of his contract. Obviously, there's some pretty significant downside risk, but where else are you getting a pitcher of that caliber? Answer: you aren't. You have one of the most valuable assets in the game. Hang onto it.
Posted by: TwinsfanEric at January 13, 2005 12:21 PMhttp://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=thinking/050113/moreno
Check out this poll - one of the choices was particularly amusing to this Twins fan.
Posted by: Say Rah! at January 13, 2005 12:42 PM"ahhh, only us yankee fans have the gall to come to batgirl's message board to talk about how great it would be to have johan in the bronx."
Jordan, that's because fans of other teams don't want to see Johan in the Bronx. They want to see Johan in their rotations (or at least not in the Yankees') Duhhhhhhhhhh.
:^)
Posted by: Donnalove at January 13, 2005 12:42 PM"ahhh, only us yankee fans have the gall to come to batgirl's message board to talk about how great it would be to have johan in the bronx."
BTW, I didn't come here as a Yankee fan to poach Johan away from Batgirl and friends. I came here as a baseball fan to talk about baseball, I used the "hey if the twins don't want him, we do" to show that Johan is a special player, and all teams, not just the Yankees, would like to be in the Twins position with a 25yo left hander, that could be an ace for years to come.
We all have different prospectives on the game based on our teams, but I think all baseball fans can agree Johan deserves to be payed.
Posted by: mike at January 13, 2005 12:49 PMMike,
An interesting argument. It seems to me, and please correct me if I'm misunderstanding, that the Yankee's fan definition of who fits on the Yankees are those players who are associated with a championship team and haven't actively, over-pricedly sucked on the YES network. Didn't win a championship with the Yankees? Must not be a Yankees type player. Clearly not Steinbrenner's fault, because there's no way to know for sure beforehand.
I suppose if A-Rod wins one he'll be on the approved list? Never mind the fact that by all accounts he's a stand up guy and team player with Hall of Fame talent. Same with Rolen, hardworking, modest, tons of talent, but you're not sure if he's a Yankee type player or not? I find that a hard position to defend.
And sure, 1908 seems like a long time ago, but not nearly as long as 2000 seems to a Yankees fan I'm sure.
Posted by: cubsfan36 at January 13, 2005 01:40 PMDon Mattingly - Real Yankee, did not win a title.
Chuck Knobloch or Wade Boggs - Not Real Yankees, won a title.
Some guys fit in, regardless of winning, and some guys don't, regardless of winning.
Posted by: mike at January 13, 2005 01:51 PMmike's right on this. and, surprisingly, great performance doesn't even gaurantee your 'reality'.
e.g., Roger Clemens. 20-game winner. Cy Young. Not a 'Real Yankee'.
e.g. Jeff Nelson. Above average middle reliever. Real Yankee. Maybe it was the mustache.
Posted by: jordan at January 13, 2005 02:53 PMI think the key to being a good yankee is to be able to remove all traces of personality or individuality and buy into the theory that baseball is not fun, winning is and to still be able to function as a baseball player. Hence why Torii would be a horrible Yankee-he has way to much fun just playing. Same thing w/ Jacque and Dougie Baseball and AJ and Big Papi-they all have personalities and smile and enjoy themselves whereas A-Rod and Jeter are corporations in a uniform and people like Giambi, Brown (to angry to buy into being a Yankee) don't work. The only person I can think that's different is David Wells, but he kept getting traded away.
-TBird
I'll diagree with the too angry part
Paulie O'Neil was an awesome Yankee. I used to sit in BLCH 39 just to watch him play. IMO, his leaving and the lack of his passion is one of the things that is currently killing the team.
Posted by: mike at January 13, 2005 03:05 PMUh, too much Yankee talk for this Twins fan.
GO TWINS!!!
p.s. Brewers sale was ok'd. Seeing as Bud is bowing out of that mess, maybe we can work on the Bob Costas for Commissioner campaign and oust him.
Posted by: HooliganKat at January 13, 2005 03:23 PMIs this a Yankees blog now?
-Lost
Mike,
So what's the definition of a Yankee player? Is there a list of qualities that are good and bad? Or is it the intangible stuff? Having never lived in New York, I'm not quite grasping the concept.
Who knows? Maybe I have the stuff to be a real Yankee, and can get me one of them sweet, Ruben Sierra, Luis Sojo-type deals to sit on the bench and provide some inherent Yankeeness to the proceedings in the Bronx every October.
Lord knows I could use the scratch to afford Cubs season tickets and body armor to wear to the Joan when El Presidente is on the South Side.
Posted by: cubsfan36 at January 13, 2005 03:27 PMApologies to all. No more Yankees talk. Bob Costas for Commissioner seems like a great idea to me. He can run on a platform slogan of "Costas: He Spent More on his Last Haircut than Selig's Barber Made in the '90s"
Posted by: repentant cubsfan36 at January 13, 2005 03:31 PMDon't sweat it, cubsfan. I think it's entertaining to watch Yankee fans try to define what makes a "real Yankee" who "fits" with the club.
Btw, I wouldn't say that Paul O'Neill was "angry." He was just a master of the crybaby face and constant whining to the umpires about the strike zone--defining hallmarks of "real Yankees" in recent years. Jeter and Posada still carry on that legacy, and A-Rod's been working on the face for years. A positive indication that he will "fit in nicely," after all. Of course, it's all contingent upon him pulling through with some heroic clutch hit in the World Series. But the latter goes without saying, doesn't it?
I wonder if there are any "real Yankees" who wouldn't also "fit in nicely" with the Twins and every other club in baseball.
Posted by: frightwig at January 13, 2005 11:44 PMAnyway, on the Johan front. Does anyone think that Carl's lowballing Johan so he can call Allan Anderson out of retirement? I mean, he's got a rubber arm like Mulholland and could probably go 200 innings for us in 2007, when Johan flees to Atlanta or wherever.
Posted by: CarterHayes at January 15, 2005 04:26 AM